Rain, and lots of it

>> Thursday, October 01, 2015

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to watch the video...lots of graphics to accompany this discussion.

This is a complex forecast still packed with uncertainty. However, a couple of things are high-confidence items:

-Rain is coming. Look for scattered showers today, and then the rain will really settle in tomorrow into Saturday. 

-Multiple inches of rain are on the way. I am going with the idea of 3-7" of rain for much of our area. However, there is the potential for more. One of the more reliable computer models (Euro model) keeps the rain going in southern NC and much of SC even into Monday, and some staggering rain totals are the result down that way. See the European rain total image below.

That is probably an extreme solution, but it is within the realm of possiblity that some locations down that way, if the rain persists into Monday, could see over one foot. 

-Much cooler temps are here. Temperatures will be steady or slowly falling today, and our temps will remain in the 50s all day tomorrow. 


Joaquin is a dangerous Category 3 hurricane and is battering the central Bahamas. This is a devastating scenario there. Again, one of the more reliable computer models (Euro) keeps Joaquin well to the east of the US East coast. The major American model (GFS) has been slowly shifting eastward with each run. However, some models still take Joaquin into the Carolina coast this weekend.

Bottom line here is that the eventual track of Joaquin is incredibly uncertain, and anybody from the South Carolina coast up through the Northeast needs to keep close tabs on the hurricane.


>> Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Be sure and check it out...lots of graphics to accompany this discussion.

A cold front will slide into the region today, and as it does so, some scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible. It will also be a pretty warm day with many highs topping 80.

Late week flood potential

An extremely complex forecast scenario then begins to unfold around the Southeast tomorrow through the weekend. The forecast will hinge around the interaction of an incoming and strengthening storm system and an influx of tropical moisture associated with Joaquin.

Rain will be likely tomorrow, and it will be significantly cooler with highs in the 60s. The heavy rain potential will then only increase Friday and Saturday as a coastal low strengthens. Rain could even continue through Sunday.

Where the axis of heavy rains sets up will be a big forecast challenge, but there is the potential for widespread 5-10" rains somewhere in the region. Stay tuned!

As for Joaquin itself, I think odds are increasing for an eventual run to near the northeast NC or VA coast late in the week. 


Tons going on

>> Tuesday, September 29, 2015

If you are a fan of the weather, this is your kind of week. All kinds of things going on, and I cover it in today's video:


Unsettled weather setup this week

>> Monday, September 28, 2015

Today's video has all of the details:


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