Drier, cooler air arriving...

>> Friday, December 23, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video...give it a look.

A cold front continues to exit to the east, and in the wake of that front, drier, cooler air is arriving. Highs today will still be pretty mild, but as soon as tonight, you will rally feel the difference with lows in the 30s.

The region will see lots of sunshine today and tomorrow as the drier air takes hold. Highs tomorrow will be in the 50s though as temps return to more typical December levels.

Christmas Day...

The next impulse in this quick-hitting pattern will approach the region Sunday. It is looking like a lot of the heavier rain will get suppressed south of NC, but I will continue to mention the chance of at least some shower activity Christmas Day with the better chances being the further south you go in the region. See the video for more.

It is looking like Monday night and Tuesday will feature good chances of a chilly rain as the next storm system rolls through.

Lots of highs in the 50s next week....so slightly above average, but nothing like the warmth that part of this week has featured.

I hope you and yours have a warm, safe, and blessed Christmas!


More rain spreading in today...

>> Thursday, December 22, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video....give it a look.

Our next storm system is already spreading rain in our direction. It's a very west start to the day in parts of eastern TX, southern AR, MS, and LA....and that is all due to a developing Gulf of Mexico low. That low will track into the southern Appalachians by this evening and will develop rain back into our region by this afternoon and evening.

Rain will be with us at times tonight before ending by tomorrow morning.

It will remain quite mild with highs today well into the 60s....even some low 70s possible again toward the Sandhills and coast. Lows will be in the 50s tonight.

Christmas weekend...

Christmas Eve is looking cooler with highs in the 50s, but it's also looking dry with some decent amounts of sun.

Christmas Day remains somewhat up in the air. The European model remains insistent that it will be a rainy day while some other modeling has backed off of that scenario. For the time being, I am still leaning toward the rainy scenario.

Next week will not be 'cold' relative to average, but it should not be nearly as mild as this week overall. I anticipate most of our highs to be slightly above average.

There remains the possibility of another storm system around the middle of next week.

Long term...

There are at least some faint indications of the NAO trying to head into negative territory as we head into January. If that occurs, it would mean a higher likelihood of a more sustained cold pattern in the eastern US. However, that potential NAO stitch is far from a certainty.


Showers at times....active pattern continues...

>> Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Above is today's edition of the video....lots to talk about.....give it a look.

We will have showers at times today as a storm system passes by to our northwest. It will also be quite mild with most highs in the 60s...even some low 70s over closer to the coast. High temps today will actually be in the ballpark of record territory.

In this very active pattern, the next storm system will arrive right on the heels of our current one. This will mean more rain developing in my later tomorrow into Friday morning.

At the moment, it appears most of us will have a dry Christmas Eve. However, our next system will then likely spread some chilly rain into the region by later Saturday night and Christmas Day. However, this is subject to change due to the very chaotic nature of the weather pattern.

The uncertain and chaotic pattern continues into next week. See the video for more....


A chaotic weather pattern....

>> Tuesday, December 20, 2011

I tell ya....it is hard to remember a time where the weather pattern was so loaded with energy and multiple disturbances. This makes for an extremely challenging and chaotic pattern.

In this type of pattern, it is going to be next to impossible to resolve the details of storm systems more than a day or two in advance. Just look at this weekend. At the moment, you have the GFS with a very chilly rain on Christmas Eve, while on the European and Canadian, it is Christmas Day.

One system will spread some rain in tonight through tomorrow. Another system will then move through later Thursday into Friday. Then we will have yet another over the Christmas weekend followed by another one sometime next week.

For the next two systems, we will be on the mild side of the system with highs next next few days largely in the 60s.

Chillier air will arrive over the Christmas weekend, and whichever day this weekend winds up being the rainy day, highs in the damming regions will likely be in the 40s.

As for snow and ice potential, the next three systems look to be rain-producers, although the weekend rain will likely be quite chilly. We will see about the system next week. Each system looks to get a little chillier as we go forward in time, and I would imagine at some point, we will get a good cold air damming episode to coincide with a storm system, but nothing definitive yet.


Back at it....

>> Monday, December 19, 2011

A big thanks to my buddy Hank Allen for filling for me and providing some content on the blog while I was on vacation last week.

After some milder weather for a stretch last week, we returned to some chilly weather over the weekend, and it's certainly cold this morning with temps in the 20s and 30s. Temps will begin to rebound this afternoon though with highs in the 50s.

Very challenging pattern...

There forecast challenges will be aplenty as we get deeper into this week and then right through the Christmas weekend into next week. A series of storm systems will impact the region, and the timing of these systems, and the exact way they will unfold, will remain a challenge.

A huge winter storm will occur over the next day or two from the TX and OK Panhandles into parts of KS and CO, and that system will spread some rain in here mainly tomorrow night and Wednesday.

It looks like another system will roll in here by late Thursday into Friday followed by another potential system Christmas Eve any maybe another one Monday.

At the moment, these systems look to be mainly rain-producers, but each system will get a little chillier as cold air damming gets involved.


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