10pm update...

>> Saturday, March 28, 2009

Storms fired up Alabama and Tennessee and quickly grew severe. However, there has been a weakening trend in the storms on the southern end of that line over the past hour or so.

In the southern Piedmont, fog has settled in in many spots. Strange weather day. This after a breezy period with a mostly clear sky right at sunset.

I still can't rule out a few strong to severe storms for the Charlotte and Triad zones tonight. However, I am having a hard time seeing how the atmosphere will get terribly unstable, so I don't expect a big severe weather event at this point.

If you are heading to bed, leave the NOAA weather radios on just to be on the safe side.

Putting the final touches on the Sunday School lesson...it is my turn to teach in the morning. And still no sign of my wife going into labor as of this evening....due date is tomorrow.

Enjoy the night and Sunday...


3pm update...

Rain and embedded storms will continue to move through the Carolinas over the next few house. The MCV can clearly be seen on radar imagery at the SC-GA border region at 2:40pm.

The potential is there some some pretty good storms this afternoon in the eastern sections of NC...mainly east of Charlotte up to RDU and points east.

For the immediate Charlotte and Triad zones, our severe weather chance will hinge on whether or not any destabilization can occur later this afternoon into this evening. Any peeks of sun that might work in from the west would certainly add to that, and cooler temps aloft moving in this evening will also aid in destabilization.

The 12z GFS still shoots the CAPE at Charlotte up to 1519 j/jg at 1am. Looks like the more unstable air back in N Georgia that develops this afternoon tries to move in late this evening.

The SPC will soon put out a tornado watch for northern Alabama into Tennessee. Any storms that fire in that region could move into the western Carolinas this evening.

The potential for a few tornadoes could be maximized right along the boundary that is currently draped through central NC.

So, the severe weather potential for the I-85 corridor? Uncertain at this point. The chances certainly look higher for places along I-95 and points eastward.


Thoughts on severe potential today and tonight...

Interesting and complex forecast today and tonight.

We have a frontal boundary that is currently draped from roughly Charlotte to RDU at 9am. That front should very slowly move northward through this evening. Temps are running in the low to mid 50s in the Triad to close to 60 in the Charlotte area to the mid 60s around RDU.

There is a big batch of rain and storms in Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle that is lifting northeastward. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident near the Alabama-Georgia line northeast of Troy. This is a similar feature to the one that developed yesterday and spawned tornadoes in eastern NC.

This batch of rain and embedded thunderstorms will push into the state later this morning and early this afternoon. The airmass is fairly stable in the Triad and Charlotte zones, but it gets a bit more unstable the farther east you go in the state. So as this first wave of activity moves through, I think the severe weather threat for the Charlotte and Triad zones is relatively low. From RDU and point eastward, you will again have to be on the lookout for some severe weather in the slightly more unstable air.

After that wave pushes through, the GFS really surges instibility into the western and central Piedmont this evening, especially in the 7pm to midnight timeframe. In fact, the severe weather indicies are pretty impressive during that time frame on the 6z GFS for CLT and the Triad. However, the NAM is not as unstable.

For the Charlotte and Triad zones, it appears to me the best opportunity for severe weather will run from roughly 5pm this evening into the predawn hours Sunday morning. It looks like a pretty mean line of storms could form and race through the area this evening into tonight. Damaging winds would likely be the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes and large hail would also be possible if the airmass destatilizes enough. The chance of severe weather before this evening in CLT and GSO is not zero, but I think the greatest chances will be this evening.

Some locally heavy rain amounts are also possible, and some flash flooding issues could crop up.

Also, the ground is already saturated in many spots. With those wet ground conditions, it will be easier than normal for trees to topple. So, please don't take severe thunderstorm warnings lightly today and tonight.

Everyone in the state needs to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings if and when they are issued. The best way is a NOAA weather radio. And of course, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television....we will keep you completely up to date and will be live on the air as often and as long as necessary.


Rain and Severe Weather Potential...

>> Friday, March 27, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I encourage you to give it a look....

A large area of rain and storms has been moving through the Deep South and Gulf coast this morning. Severe weather has been a problem on the south side of this area, and several tornado warnings were issued in Louisiana, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

That big area of rain will move into the Carolinas today. This looks like a nice soaking rain that will be with us this afternoon and this evening. Some spots could easily see in excess of an inch of rain. The rain will taper off tonight.

Meanwhile, it still looks like a sizable severe weather outbreak could occur late today and tonight in portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. I am especially concerned about the corridor from northern Louisiana into north and central Mississippi into central Alabama this evening and tonight.

We will see that rain and thunderstorm activity then develop into the Carolinas later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Severe weather remains a distinct possibility. Exactly how great the severe weather threat will be will depend on how several small-scale features set up tomorrow morning and afternoon. However, all modes of severe weather look possible with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes, as well as flash flooding all remaining possibilities.

We will begin the day with a frontal boundary draped through the region, and that front will lift northward through the day tomorrow. How far north that front makes is prior to the rain and storms arriving will go a long way in determine the severe weather potential. If that front were to happen to lock in across southern North Carolina, the severe weather threat would be significantly lessened across much of the Piedmont. However, if it surges northward, severe weather will be likely. We just simply won't be able to tell how that front will respond until we get into the day tomorrow.

Dry weather returns for Sunday and Monday. However, the storm track remains active next week, and more showers look possible Tuesday night and Wednesday with more storm possible Thursday night into Friday.


Active pattern continues...

>> Thursday, March 26, 2009

Very chilly, foggy conditions out there greeting us this morning. Temps at 5am were in the upper 30s in many spots! The reason for the chilliness is a lingering wedge that is still in place. That wedge will slowly erode away today, making for a very tricky temperature forecast. The northwest Piedmont might stay in the 40s all day with the southern Piedmont making a run toward the lower 60s.

Severe weather has been occurring early this morning in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. That wave of rain and storms will lift our way through the day, so rain will certainly highlight our forecast today. A few thunderstorms could make it into the southern Piedmont, but I don't anticipate any severe weather today.

Tomorrow we will be in between systems, but I will maintain the chance of some showers, especially tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to even lower 70s in spots.

Saturday still appears to have the potential of being an active weather day here in the Carolina. Severe weather looks quite likely in portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee late Friday and Friday night. That storm system will then spread showers and thunderstorms into the Carolinas by later Saturday.

Around the Piedmont, I do still think severe weather is a possibility, and we will continue to monitor it closely. This is a good time to check your NOAA weather radios and make sure they are in working order as well as review your severe weather safety plan in the event that we do get into a severe weather scenario later Saturday. And of course, we will keep tabs of everything for you on News 14 Carolina.

Dry weather will return for Sunday and Monday before more showers are possible Tuesday.

In other news, we have another prenatal appointment this morning. The due date is Sunday, so hopefully the appointment today will give us a clue about how close to 'go time' we are...


Lots of rain ahead...

>> Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Ugh. We did a ton of cleaning around the house yesterday. I did the vacuuming, and before I started, I dusted out the HEPA filter. Combine that with lots of folks cutting grass in the neighborhood yesterday, and the result is me having tons of sinus pressure this morning. After work, time for a dose of allergy medicine and a nap!

Light rain will be with us at times today, and temps will just hover in the mid 40s to lower 50s through the day. Overnight tonight, we will see temps warm as southerly winds kick in and intervals of rain continue.

A storm system will lift through the region tomorrow bringing more rain. A few rumbles of thunder could also be involved in a few spots.

Friday morning we will likely see a lull in the activity, but another wave of rain is possible Friday afternoon and evening.

A powerful storm system will develop in Arkansas Friday. I still think that system has the potential to be a big severe weather producer in much of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee Friday afternoon and Friday night.

That wave of showers and storms will likely shift through the Piedmont of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Some severe weather still looks like a possibility, and we will continue to fine-tune that threat over the next couple of days.

Sunday looks dry and fairly breezy. Another potential shot of rain could arrive around Tuesday.


Unsettled weather heading our way...

>> Tuesday, March 24, 2009

A cooler airmass is settling into the region today, and highs will not be as warm today as what we say yesterday. In the Charlotte region, look for low to maybe mid 60s...mainly mid 50s for the Triad and Triangle.

The first in a series of storm systems will approach our area tomorrow. Clouds will increase tonight, and some light rain will be possible at times tomorrow with highs close to 50.

Another wave of rain looks likely Thursday, and we could hear some rumbles of thunder as well. I expect another push of rain Friday with a frontal boundary stalled nearby, and then a potent storm system will roll through this weekend.

That last system has the looks of a big severe weather maker in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, and Tennessee Valley later Friday into Friday night and Saturday morning.

Around here, I anticipate a wave of showers and thunderstorms to roll through later Saturday or Saturday night. Some of the storms could wind up being severe around here, and we will watch that closely.

Another facet of the forecast over the next few days is rain amounts. Copious amounts of rain will occur in the Tennessee Valley into the mountains of North Carolina. The total amounts will likely decrease the farther east you head in the Carolinas, but still, some portions of Piedmont could easily see at least a couple of inches of rain between tomorrow and the weekend.

Enjoy today....the rain chances arrive tomorrow!


Active Weather Pattern Ahead...

>> Monday, March 23, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. A lot of active weather over the next week, so I encourage you to watch if you hold an interest in weather.

First off, let me say that today and tomorrow will be quiet around here. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s, maybe some lower 70s in spots, and then highs tomorrow will be cooler...mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

A dynamic Spring storm system will cause an outbreak of severe weather in the Plains later today and tonight. Meanwhile, up in the colder portion of the storm system, a blizzard will unfold in the northern Plains. Quite a system!

The cold front with the system will drop in here Wednesday and give us the first in a series of rain chances this week. I won't delve into all of the specifics, but basically we look to see some rain later Wednesday, then some more rain Thursday, then again later Friday, and then again later Saturday into Sunday.

That weekend system sure has the look of a big severe weather producer in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Deep South, and we might wind up seeing some of that severe weather in the Carolinas at some point over the weekend. We shall see.

Again, if you hold an interest in the weather, you will enjoy the next week or so.

It was a very busy weekend for me. I got the call late Friday afternoon that Tara Lane was a bit under the weather, so I pulled the Saturday morning shift for her for the Charlotte and Triad markets. From work Saturday morning, it was straight home to grab the family, and then over to Anson county to spend some time with my wife's parents who are doing some work over there. Spent the afternoon with them.

We went out for lunch at a restaurant Saturday, and something did not sit well with me at all. So, let's just say I spent quite a bit of time the rest of the day in the restroom. Then, my oldest daughter took a nasty tumble on her bike Saturday afternoon. Landed right on her face on the gravel road. She has a couple of nasty scrapes that are healing, but thankfully nothing serious.

We got home Saturday evening, then it was up for church and Sunday school yesterday morning. Spent the afternoon at home relaxing a bit and doing LOTS of prep work to the house to get ready for the baby. We are in the final countdown now...due date is Sunday. But baby bed is set up....so is the bassinet, house continues to be tidied...we are getting close.

At any rate, enjoy today....it will be nice. Lots of rain chances coming down the line...

So anyway,


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