Saturday Evening...

>> Saturday, February 16, 2008

Pretty quiet around the Carolinas this evening. Our next storm system is swirling over Texas this evening, and severe weather is a big threat out ahead of it in eastern Texas ans Louisiana tonight and then through the Deep South and Tennessee Valley tomorrow.

For us, a little light rain is possible later tonight, and some passing showers are possible tomorrow. But, the bulk of our activity will come tomorrow night as the cold front pushes through.

How unstable our airmass becomes is still in question, but I do think some thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening and Sunday night in the Carolinas. The SPC has roughly from I-85 eastward outlined in a 'slight' risk for severe weather tomorrow night. We will watch it closely as tomorrow unfolds.

The weather will be quiet Monday through Wednesday with cold nights and cool afternoons.

Thursday and Friday will feature a train of moisture moving through the mid-Atlantic region, and that could wind up being a big ice problem for the Virginias and Maryland. The GFS has even flirted with the idea of ice potential in the Virginia border counties of North Carolina.

Right now, Thursday and Friday look cool with occasional rain showers. For the time being, the ice potential looks to stay off to our north, but we will watch it.


Snow wrap-up....

>> Thursday, February 14, 2008

I was in the midday forecast seat for the Triad and Charlotte markets yesterday. In my forecast package for the Triad, I had put in the chance for a little bit of snow yesterday evening. I think on the 'tonight' graphic, I had "Some evening snowflakes."

Obviously, that was a big understatement. No doubt about it. However, several other outlets you might have checked for weather information had no mention of snow whatsoever yesterday evening. So if you saw my forecast, at least there was some mention of snow in there. But, did I think there would be heavy snow with 2"-3" in many spots....nope.

Traffic accidents aside, I think the snow was a nice surprise for many folks. I remember as a kid, there was nothing sweeter than an unexpected snowfall. And it was neat to see some kids today enjoying that feeling.

So, meteorologically speaking, what happened?

Below is the 500mb chart and the 700mb chart from last night.
You will notice a very strong disturbance (on the 500mb chart) rotating right overhead yesterday evening. On the 700mb chart, the shades of green indicate atmospheric moisture.

So, that strong disturbance created all of the lift necessary to get some heavy precipitation, and the moisture was still available. And with rapidly dropping temperatures aloft, the atmospheric profile quickly became supportive of snowfall. Thus, we wound up with a quick dumping of some heavy snow.



>> Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Some snow has materialized in the Piedmont this evening. Reports of some snow falling have come in from quite a few spots. In fact, Winston Salem is only reporting 0.75 miles of visibility due to the snow. Portions of the Triad have received 1" to 2" of snow this evening.

**Update...some spots in the Triad now over 3" of snow.**

Below is a picture from a viewer in Woodleaf, NC.



Well, the stubborn wedge is finally eroding away this afternoon, but not before holding temperatures way down last night and this morning.

Some rain occurred, but overall, the heaviest rain amounts were over eastern North Carolina.

Some lingering showers are possible through this evening, and there could even be a few snowflakes at times this evening...especially over the northern Piedmont. Up in the mountains, snow showers will continue into tonight.

Our weekend storm system continues to slow down on most modeling. The GFS is now indicating a Sunday into Sunday night system. This timing would be slow enough to alleviate any ice Sunday, the high pressure is now longer in excellent damming position.


By the way...

>> Monday, February 11, 2008

Yes, I have seen the GFS for the weekend. Several of the recent runs have indicated ice potential for the western part of North Carolina.

The Euro is much warmer, giving us lots of rain.

Still way too far out for any real excitement....but it has my attention.



Wow....that wind yesterday really was something. I drove out to the Charlotte airport last night because I was curious how the pilots were handling those stiff winds. I tell ya....I would not have wanted to be one of those pilots trying to land with the wind yesterday afternoon and evening. The wind was essentially a cross wind and very gusty...even made you lose your balance at times.

Colder this morning with lots of 20s out there...40s coming for highs today.

Next rain chance arrives tomorrow through Wednesday, then after that the next system is Saturday. Models are all over the place with the weekend system.

We have some family coming in town today, so time to get ready for that....



>> Sunday, February 10, 2008

Incredibly windy conditions out there this afternoon. Winds gusts in the Piedmont have gusted up to around 50mph at times. We have reports of about 7,000 people without power in Mecklenburg County and 3,000 in Rowan County.

The winds are even higher up in the mountains. Grandfather Mountain was closed today due to the winds.

The wind will diminish this


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