Snow chances today..... not a big storm system

>> Saturday, February 16, 2013

Light precip is falling in parts of the Carolinas as of this typing, at 7:30am. Some of this is light rain, but there is some light snow involved as well.

This band should slowly strengthen and pivot eastward.

As the airmass continues to cool, this band should put down some accumulating snow in some areas as it heads east. I think the general placements of the Winter Weather Advisories from the Raleigh NWS are pretty good.

For the Upstate and western half of the Charlotte metro....I think the chances of getting any snow on the ground depend on the development of another area of snow later today...induced as a stronger shot of upward vertical motion moves through. You can see that development being picked up on by the RGEM and RPM model below.

Assuming that area develops later today, there could be some brief bursts of heavier snow with it. That is the best chance the Upstate and I-85 corridor from CLT west has to get some snow on the ground.

This is very low-confidence....and I wouldn't be better the farm on getting the ground white. But some folks will as the day unfolds.


Sharply colder this weekend... a little snow tomorrow.

>> Friday, February 15, 2013

Please look at today's video.... lots to talk about.

Mild today ahead of a front.... enjoy it. It turns sharply colder this weekend. In fact, highs tomorrow will likely be 20 degrees colder than most highs today.

A big upper level trough, embedded with pieces of energy, will swing in tomorrow. It appears now that some of that energy will phase soon enough to throw some precipitation back into the Carolinas. In many spots, after a little rain initially, most of that precip will fall in the form of snow.

This does not look like a major event for most of the region. However, many spots could see enough snow to whiten the ground, and the best chances of more significant accumulations would likely be in northeastern NC.

We get a rain-producing system Tuesday, and then we will have to watch the degree of cold air damming that will be in place as our next system arrives Thursday night into Friday morning.


Brighter weather....

>> Thursday, February 14, 2013

Here's today's video....

Sunshine returns today with highs in the 50s.... pretty close to mid-February averages as a whole. Not bad at all for Valentine's Day!

We will squeeze in some milder temps tomorrow just ahead of an incoming front. However, the bottom then falls out of our temps this weekend with highs around 10 degrees or so below average in many spots.

Lots of upper level energy will accompany the trough this weekend. However, for snow fans, it appears this will be a case of some bad luck with some of the details. The trough will be oriented just a bit too far east, and the whole trough turns negative tilt just a bit too late to crank a big coastal low. It is close, but not quite there. So, at this point, a little light precip looks possible tomorrow night into Saturday, but nothing terribly significant. At least at this point....

Beyond, active times are on tap with an active storm track for the rest of the month. Time is starting to run somewhat short, but if I were an upper Southeast snow fan, I wouldn't completely throw the towel in yet.


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