Here comes the heat...

>> Friday, June 17, 2011

Heat and humidity will continue to build through the weekend with highs surging well into 90s as the weekend unfolds. In fact, today, many spots will see lower 90s with mid 90s common in many places by Sunday.

The heat will peak the first few days of next work week with some mid to maybe even upper 90s.

Regarding storms, a few isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening, then a little better chance of storms will be with us late Saturday and Sunday. In fact, some modeling is indicating a good chance of storms Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

A significant trough will move into the northern and central Plains next week.....that looks like a big-time severe weather producer in that part of the country. It appears as if the trough will try to make it into the eastern US by the end of the week, which, if that occurs, would bring a little heat relief to our region by that time.


Heat and humidity returning...

>> Thursday, June 16, 2011

That break from the heat and humidity we had was great, but that break is essentially finished now with heat and humidity levels on the increase in coming days.

A big complex of storms developed in KY and TN and ripped into the mountains then down through much of SC, GA, and into northern FL. Lots of wind damage occurred with that area of storms, and there was some hail in spots as well.

That complex of storms really disrupted the return flow of moisture up into area region, and thus, we had no showers or storms overnight into this morning. However, with a frontal boundary slowing moving through the region, the chance of some scattered storms will be with us today. It could very well be that the best chance of storms today is closer to I-95 though.

Heat and humidity will continue to build with weekend highs in the low to mid 90s and maybe mid to upper 90s next work week. Each day will have some chance of an afternoon storms...right now, Sunday and Monday are looking to feature the best chances.


Sun to take another prolonged nap?

>> Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Some of the leading solar scientists are pointing out that three separate indicators used to predict solar cycles are all pointing to a significant period of sunspot inactivity ahead.

I find it a little strange that the seemingly most obvious factor impacting the earth's climate is something you rarely ever hear discussed in the global warming debate....the sun.

I am far from an expert on the sun, and I am not a global climate expert by any means. However, I do study weather and climate operationally on a daily basis. It would seem to be almost common sense that a very active sun would likely coincide with warming period here on earth and vice versa.

Let's look at the Little Ice Age....a period of significant cooling of the earth's climate. See the graph below.

Now let's look at sunspot cycle history, and note the Maunder Minimum.

There is really no debate that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age. Now, how much those two are tied together is still a matter of debate.

Now, look at recent history, and the warming that occurred through the 20th and 21st century. This also coincides nicely with an overall active period for the sun.

So, where are we headed?

If these newly-released predictions are correct, and if this goes to the extreme and we see another period of inactivity of the sun like occurred in the Maunder Minimum, I certainly think it is reasonable to expect cooling of the earth's climate overall.

How much cooler, and for how long? Those are questions that are impossible to answer, but I find all of this very interesting.

Let me be clear...I am not saying the solar cycle is the be-all, end-all impacting global climate. But I am saying it likely plays a big role.


One more nice day...

What fantastic weather we had for our Tuesday! Highs in the piedmont ranged from the upper 70s to mid 80s at most, and humidity levels were very low. And it's a pleasant start to our Wednesday with temps in the 50s in many spots. Many mountain locations are in the 40s!

We will squeeze in one more nice day today before changes arrive. Piedmont highs will be in the low to mid 80s with continued low humidity levels. Some storms will likely rumble into the mountains later this afternoon, and then the chance of some showers and storms spreads eastward tonight and extends into tomorrow.

Heat and humidity will gradually build as we end the week and head into the weekend with highs at least in the lower 90s for most this weekend.

I will maintain the chance of a least a couple of storms on a daily basis with the chances probably increasing for Sunday and Monday.

It still looks pretty hot next week, but there are some signs this morning that the core of the heat might stay centered a little west of the Carolinas early in the week. So, I have toned down the heat just a bit for Monday and Tuesday with the morning forecast package.


Terrific Tuesday weather......but changes coming...

>> Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Absolutely wonderful weather across the North Carolina piedmont today with highs in the 80s and very low levels of humidity. In fact, I think many spots will see dewpoints mix out into the 40s this afternoon.

Lows tonight will dip into the upper 50s in many spots....comfortable stuff. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s....some storms are likely in the mountains by later in the afternoon, but the piedmont should stay dry through the day.

Enjoy the break from the storms, heat, and humidity.....all are set to return as the forecast period unfolds. The storms return as soon as Wednesday night into Thursday as a front lifts back into the region from the south.

Highs will return to the low 90s by the weekend....and it is looking quite hot next week with a big ridge beginning to crank overhead.

See the video for details....



>> Monday, June 13, 2011

Enjoy the weather over the next couple of days. Today will be noticeably less muggy across the region as a cold front ushers in what I believe are some welcome weather changes across the region. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s for many in the Piedmont, and any storm chances this afternoon should be in the Coastal Plain.

Tomorrow is my pick day of the week with 80s for highs, lots of sun, and low humidity. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will dip down at least into the lower 60s for most...and I fully expect to see some upper 50s on the board, especially Wednesday morning.

Enjoy the break from the storms, heat, and humidity.....because unsettled weather returns as soon as Wednesday night and Thursday. In fact, Thursday could be a pretty active weather day around the region with a warm front lifting through and some upper level energy involved.

At this point, it looks like that frontal boundary will meander around close to the region through the look for humid conditions with daily storm chances of that's the case.


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