Cold and blustery!

>> Friday, January 13, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video...

The wind over the past 24 hours has been impressive, and conditions remain blustery today. Much colder air continues to blow in here, and highs will struggle to make it into the lower 40s in a lot of places. Many foothills spots will likely not make it out of the 30s.

Snow continues to fly in the mountains this morning, and that will taper off with time today.

Chilly conditions will be with us through the weekend with some 40s for highs and 20s for lows.

Temps will moderate a bit Monday with some 50s for a lot of our highs, and then another cold front will bring some rain Tuesday.

Another shot of cold air will follow that front later next work week with more 40s for highs and 20s for lows.

See the video for more long-range thoughts....


Radar shots....

>> Thursday, January 12, 2012

Scroll to the post below this one for my morning discussion and video....

Here are two level II radar images from the GSP NEXRAD as the apparent tornado was moving through the foothills. The first image is when the storm was near Ellenboro....the second was when it was nearing Icard and Hildebran.


Icard/ Hildebran:

And here was the velocity data from the Charlotte TDWR:


Breezy and mild today....much colder tomorrow...

Here's today's edition of the video....lots of info in there.

Storm surveys are being conducted today, but it appears a tornado impacted parts of Rutherford and Burke counties yesterday evening. It appears, assuming this is confirmed tornado damage (which photos seem to back up) that this is the first tornado Burke or Rutherford counties have ever recorded in the months of December, January, or February.

An arctic cold front is heading our way and will swing through this evening. Ahead of the front, we get a breezy and mild day with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s and winds gusting over 35mph at times. Up in the mountains, winds will likely gust over 60mph at times.

The foothills and piedmont will have a quick shot of showers this evening with the arctic front. Up in the mountains, a few inches of snow are likely in many spots, and I suppose I can't rule out a snowflake or two in the northern foothills too.

Much colder air will be with us tomorrow into early next week with 40s for highs and 20s for lows.

Another cold front will move through Tuesday bringing some rain chances followed by another push of colder air for Wednesday and Thursday.


Still no changes here. The sustained, really cold air will try to remain bottled up off to our north a lot of the time over the next couple of weeks. However, as we could see the middle of next week, any little disturbance could amplify enough to pull that colder air down our way from time to time.

Also, I still think we will have a chance of some cold air damming episodes at times as high pressure areas build from the northern Plains into the Northeast.


Wet Wednesday...

>> Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video....

A potent upper level low continue to approach the region today. We will continue to see showers at times this morning, then an area of heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will swing through this afternoon and early evening. A few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out today with the better chances being the farther east and south you live in the region.

There will be a huge spread in temps today around the region with the northern foothills likely remaining in the 40s and southern NC approaching 60 or so.

We will squeeze in a mild and breezy day tomorrow before it turns much colder for Friday into early next week. Looks for lots of 40s for highs and 20s for lows.

As the arctic boundary (and the associated upper level energy) pivot through tomorrow evening, a quick shot of some snow is possible in the mountains with a loose rain shower or two possible in the piedmont.

Next week...

It looks like a fairly weak storm system will try to move in around Tuesday of next week. It is possible that there will be enough cold, dry air as the precip initially moves in for a little brief period of some mixed precipitation, assuming the precip were to move in early enough. But this doesn't look really significant at this point of it occurs at all.

Long range...

Tons of extremely cold arctic air will get shoved into Canada next week....the question is when and how far south does it make it?

Overall, no changes here from me. I expect a lot of the cold air will remain bottled up off to our north. However, with arctic highs moving from the northern Plains into the Northeast, we will have to watch for cold air damming episodes from time to time.

Plus, the arctic will will be quite it would only take some minor pattern amplifications to send the cold into our region.


Soaking rains tomorrow....colder to end the week...

>> Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video....lots to talk about....give it a look.

It's a foggy start to our Tuesday out there with temps in the 40s. The fog will erode with time this morning, giving way to a partly sunny to mostly cloudy afternoon sky with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

The big upper low in Texas continues to slowly move our way, and we will see rain arrive as soon as later tonight.

Tomorrow will be a day featuring soaking rains, and a few rumbles of thunder are also possible. At this point, I expect most of the severe weather threat to remain confined to areas from roughly I-95 to the coast. But we will watch it.

Thursday will be mild, but then it turns much colder for Friday and the weekend with 40s back in place for highs.

Longer range...

No real changes to my thoughts here. We will see the coldest air in the hemisphere make it into northern North America next week. At this point, I am still leaning in the direction of the idea that most of the sustained cold largely stays across the northern US. However, with the cold air anchored so close by, I fully expect arctic blasts from time to time into the Southeast.

If the temp battleground stays close to the region, that would likely mean the storm track also stays close. So, I still think you could have far worse looks overall for snow fans.

The overall weather pattern though features tons of questions, so I have to reserve the right to amend or trash ideas as necessary.

The models will continue to struggle. Just like several runs of the GFS yesterday had a Southeast winter storm, only for it to vanish on the 0z run today. Very, very challenging pattern.

Please see the video for several graphics that demonstrate what I am talking about.


Dreary Monday weather...big mid-week system...

>> Monday, January 09, 2012

Please take a few minutes and look at today's edition of the video, docked below. I spend a good deal of time not only looking at this week's weather, but I talk at length about the possibilities of where this overall pattern is heading.

A cold air damming scenario is in play today with clouds and occasional showers and drizzle. Piedmont and foothills highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

We will squeeze in a nice day tomorrow ahead of our mid-week system with lots of sun and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Wednesday will be a wet day with generous rain amounts across the region. A warm front will nose into the region from the south, and areas near and south of that front will have a chance of a strong or severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, I think the best severe chances will stay south of roughly I-40.

A blast of cold air will arrive for Friday through the weekend with a lot of our highs and lows returning to below average levels.


Quite a complex forecast in the long-term. A big ridge will develop up to Alaska late this week into early next week, and that, combined with some ridging in Europe, will send the coldest air in the hemisphere into Canada. That means some bitterly cold air will be available, close-by.

Will the cold air remain bottled up to our north? Possibly. However, I this it is more likely that we will see a pattern through the second half of January where we will have shots of cold air, and as strong high pressure areas move from the northern Plains into the Northeast, we could have some cold air damming scenarios.

For snow fans, you don't want cold and dry air to just overwhelm the pattern, so the look of where I think we are heading is not bad.

Please see the video for more.... it's easier to show you than type out.


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