Looking ahead....

>> Saturday, December 03, 2011

I am hearing lots of rumbles of panic and cancelling of Winter. I just don't see any reason at all for this.

First of all, it's early December. Granted, we were entering a very cold stretch at this point last year, and it's certainly going to be fairly mild into the middle of next week. We have not had a prolonged, significant blast of cold air yet. However, it has been plenty chilly at times with lots of up and down temps.

Looking ahead to next week, I think we will see a pretty significant blast of cold air by the end of the week/ weekend. Not quite sure how cold, but pretty cold nonetheless.

As for snow/ wintry weather chances, most of the time, you don't want to have a pattern where cold just overwhelms the pattern.....that gives you cold and dry. A lot of times, you want to be fairly close to the battle zone of temps to keep the storm track active and nearby. And I can see that scenario unfolding for the Southeast as we head into mid-month.

Looking toward that mid-month period, I think there will plenty of cold air in the continent, and it looks to be a scenario where the Carolinas will be ripe for a cold air damming scenario or two down the road.

I also note, as I did back in my Winter Forecast, the this pattern continues to want to try and produce big, powerful upper air lows. Just look at earlier this week! Doesn't snow in November in Mississippi and Alabama much.....not bad for this "boring, mild pattern" we are in.

So, there will probably wind up being a couple of big systems later in the month, and of course, wherever those wind up, obviously fun and games will be had.

So, snow fans......relax. Let's see what happens. I see no reason for panic.


Nice Friday weather....

>> Friday, December 02, 2011

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look....

It's another cold start out there with temps in the 20s and 30s. However, highs will warm into the lower 60s for most today with sunshine all day. Pretty nice weather overall.

A weak cold front will slide through during the next 12 hours, but you will not even notice it is moving through. About the only impact is will have on our weather is to return our highs to the 50s tomorrow.

Next system....

Our next storm system will be a slow-mover, and there are still lots of timing difference amongst the models. Some modeling moves it in as early as later Tuesday (GFS) with other modeling (Euro) not until Thursday. Whenever the system does move through, look for some shower chances followed by chilly air.


One of the main components of my Winter Outlook was a general negative phase of the NAO and AO. Thus far, those indices have remained on the positive side. We will have one ingredient in place for cold air as we roll deeper in December, and that is a large ridge building near the West Coast. That alone would likely continue to provide us with some cold shots from time to time.

However, if you want to see a cold pattern lock into the eastern US, you really (in a La Nina) need the help of the NAO and AO. I still feel we will see these flip to negative at some point, but that is really just based off of the longer-term negative multi-year phase of the NAO we are in, and not based on anything I see in modeling right now. We will see.


Quiet start to December...complex forecast next week...

>> Thursday, December 01, 2011

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look.

The weather will remain very quiet around here through the weekend. Highs today will be in the 50s with highs up around 60s or so tomorrow. For the weekend, it looks like mainly 50s for highs. Morning lows will remain chilly....well down into the 30s, with some spots dipping into the upper 20s.

Next week....

The models are all over the place in their handling of storm systems next week. See the video for the graphics on this. The Canadian swings some northern branch energy through by Monday night, pushing a cold front through along with rain chances. The GFS is slower and keeps energy in the Southwest combined with northern branch energy. It swings the best rain chances through Monday night and Tuesday. The European model is the slowest of all in bring the rain through Wednesday.

I am going with a compromise approach this morning, indicating the best rain chances Monday night into Tuesday. However, that might have to be adjusted.

For some ideas on the longer range, see the video...


Mountain snow

>> Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Here are some photos I snapped up in the mountains yesterday afternoon. Most of the time we were up there, it was snowing in a moderate to heavy fashion.


Much cooler...

>> Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

It has been fascinating to watch this powerhouse upper air low develop and impact the Southeast. Underneath the upper low, snow has been falling from north Mississippi and Alabama up into Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Kentucky.

For our region, it has been soaking rains through the night, but that band of rain has continued a steady march eastward as we have arrived into this morning.

The upper air low will track up through eastern Tennessee and then continue northward from there. As a piece of energy pinwheels around the south side of the big upper air low, another round of precip will develop into the region this afternoon. Up in the mountains, almost all of this precip later today and tonight will be snow, and a few inches are possible in many mountain spots.

For the foothills and piedmont, look for rain showers that could mix with or kick over to snow showers at times, but any snow will not be significant once outside of the higher elevations.

Look for lots of sun tomorrow into the weekend with most highs in the 50s and lower in the 30s.

Our next front look to move in later Sunday or Monday, and a pretty good shot of cold air could follow that one around the middle of next week.


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