Sunshine in full force!

>> Friday, October 01, 2010

The region will get a nice opportunity to dry out over the next couple of days as we will enjoy abundant sunshine and highs in the 70s. It will also be a little breezy today as some cooler air begins the process of blowing in. That cooler airmass will allow for lows tonight and Saturday night will drop into the upper 40s in many Piedmont locations.

Another upper air low will form just to our northwest Sunday into Monday. As that occurs, an area of low pressure will form just offshore. These features will provide us with some shower chances as well as a continuous feed of chilly air from the northeast.

Sunday will feature at least some chance of a few late day showers with Piedmont highs in the 60s. Monday is looking quite cool with a cloudy sky, some periodic showers, and many Piedmont highs only in the mid to upper 50s!

Highs should try to rebound into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday as more sun gradually works in, and the end of next work week looks terrific with sunshine and highs in the 70s.


We are monitoring a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development is possible with that area.


Rain ending...chillier weather ahead...

>> Thursday, September 30, 2010

The flooding rains that has persisted across a large portion of central and eastern NC will gradually ease eastward today. For the Triad, the rain will largely end by mid-morning. However, the moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue for much of the day for eastern NC.

Places like the Triad and Charlotte should see a few peeks of sunshine work in as the afternoon progresses. Assuming that does indeed occur, highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunshine will return in full force tomorrow and Saturday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s, and a fresh northwest wind will be gusty at times.

Chillier weather...

A Canadian airmass will settle into the region for the weekend. Lows in many Piedmont locations will wind up in the 40s by Saturday morning, and everybody should be well down into the 40s Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will likely be in the 60s.

The GFS appears to be lost with its handling of the pattern across the eastern US Sunday into next work week. The European, Canadian, and UKMET have largely been in agreement that another upper air low will develop over the eastern US Sunday into next week, while the GFS keeps the trough progressive without a cutoff low forming.

With that in mind, my forecast will mention the chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. If we do wind up with a primarily rainy day somewhere in there, highs will likely not get out of the 50s in many spots.


Soaking rains return...

>> Wednesday, September 29, 2010

A deep fetch of tropical moisture is getting pulled into the region today, and that process will continue through tonight. The result will be waves of rain that progress through the region from south to north. A few storms could become involved tonight, and I can't rule out the chance of a brief spin-up tornado, mainly in eastern North Carolina.

Rainfall amounts will be generous in many areas. Pinpointing the exact amounts and where exactly the heaviest rain amounts will occur is tricky, but generally speaking, I will say anybody from the I-77 corridor east to the coast is fair game for 1-4" of rain with some spots possibly seeing more.

Today will also be cool with the clouds and rain with most highs in the Piedmont and Foothills only in the mid to upper 60s.

The system pulls away tomorrow, and as that occurs, I will maintain the chance of some showers.

Friday will feature sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to near 80, then a significant push of cool air arrives for the weekend.

Highs Saturday will likely struggle to reach the lower 70s despite a sunny sky. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will then likely only be in the 60s.

I will bring back in rain chances Monday through Wednesday, and if that does pan out, temps Monday and Tuesday could be even cooler than indicated in the formal forecast.

TD 16...

The depression remains disorganized, but there is some chance this could become a tropical storm prior to becoming a non-tropical low pressure area tomorrow. The exact center locations of this one is rather insignificant....large areas of rain and breezy conditions will surround the system for hundreds of miles.


Drying out today....tropical rains arrive tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Sunday and Monday were indeed wet periods across the entire region. For the Piedmont, many spots received a nice 2-4" of rain during that 48 hour stretch. The rain amounts really ramped up as you head eastward though. Wilmington was absolutely slammed with rain....totals in that area approached 11 inches!

The upper air low that pulled all of the rain in there is rapidly lifting northeastward away from our area. On the south side of the system, drier air is working in, and that will result in a good deal of sun today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The weather will then sharply change again. Unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea (which might get classified as a tropical system) will get picked up by another strong upper level system diving our way, and the result will be tropical rains spreading into the region tomorrow, tomorrow night, and into Thursday morning.

Rainfall amounts are tricky with this one. There will likely be a pretty sharp gradient in the rainfall totals from west to east, and again, I fully expect the Coastal Plain to get hammered with big rain totals. The rain totals for the Piedmont amongst the various computer models rain from less than an inch to over 4 inches or all depends on exactly how the slug of tropical moisture moves through the region.

Once that system departs later Thursday, cool, dry weather will try to settle in for the weekend. In fact, Piedmont spots could very well see some upper 60s for highs and some 40s for lows by early next week!


Wet Monday...

>> Monday, September 27, 2010

The wet pattern will persist today across the region, and some generous amounts of rain look quite possible. Through the event thus far, some convection near the Gulf coast has cut down on the rainfall totals a bit, and that might continue. However, still looks like a wet day for sure.

There is some risk of severe weather as the day unfolds. Once west of the Coastal Plain, the airmass is stable this morning. However, some of that instability will likely edge westward into parts of the interior Carolinas today. As some dynamics get involved, some storms could produce an isolated tornado or two as well as damaging winds.

We have definitely made a large-scale pattern change. For the next couple of weeks, the upper air pattern will try to settle into an eastern North America trough more often than not.


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