Calmer weather arriving....

>> Friday, August 06, 2010

It was a rough and tumble Thursday around the region with numerous showers and storms and a slew of severe thunderstorms warnings and wind damage reports. Not only did we have wind, but we had tons of lightning and lots of locally heavy rainfall.

Today, the actual cold front will slide through and bring a few showers and storms, but I expect the coverage of showers and storms to be significantly lower than what we had yesterday. The greater coverage of storms will be the farther south you go in the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most.

Tomorrow, we will get into the drier air behind that front, and it will be noticeably less muggy. Highs will be in the lower 90s, and while the rain chance is not zero, most spots will stay dry.

Sunday looks much the same with lower 90s and lower humidity and only an isolated storm chance.

More heat next week....

Enjoy the little respite this weekend because the heat and humidity will crank again next week. Highs will surge back into the mid to upper 90s with lows in the mid 80s and very humid conditions.


Colin is a classified tropical storm again, and will likely move just west of Bermuda tomorrow. The system will not impact the US mainland.

See the Tropical Page of this site for more Colin information.


Hot and humid with scattered storms...

>> Thursday, August 05, 2010

Overnight, an intense area of storms raced through eastern NC, bringing some heavy rain and lightning in that part of the region.

Conditions should be fairly quiet this morning with temps shooting up pretty rapidly. Highs should top out in the mid to maybe upper 90s, and with very humid conditions continuing, heat index values will exceed 100 and maybe 105 at times in some spots.

As we get into this afternoon, scattered storms will likely fire, and the scattered showers and storms could continue at times into tonight. The overall atmospheric setup today is a little more favorable for some damaging winds, so I suspect some severe thunderstorms warnings will be required for some storms.

Tomorrow's forecast all depends on how quickly the next cold front scoots south through the area. For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances for some showers and storms, but if the front were to move a little quicker than expected, the shower and storms chance would be much lower.

A fairly quiet weekend is ahead with highs in the lower 90s and slightly less humidity. The storm chance is low over the weekend as well.

Our old friend (or nemesis), the upper level ridge, will build back in next work week, meaning highs back into the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s.


The remnants of Colin continue to try and re-organize, and a recon plan will investigate the area later today if need be.


Heat marching on...

>> Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Highs returned to the 90s in many spots yesterday around our region, and today should be a few ticks hotter in most spots. I am going for mid 90s for most of our highs, and it will remain very muggy as well.

An interesting precip forecast today. First of all, a little light rain is scraping through northern NC early today as we catch the tail end of a disturbance to our north. That will exit quickly today.

The rest of the day's shower and storm chances largely depends on the progress of a disturbance that began the day in Ohio. Some modeling keeps that disturbance well to our north, while others models bend it southeast and right through our area. As it stands now, it appears the second solution is more or less correct, and I will mention a pretty good chance of showers and storms today.

I expect scattered storms tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid to even a few upper 90s.

Friday continues to look unsettled as a cold front drops in. I expect a good coverage of showers and storms with highs in the low to mid 90s.

That front will slowly sag south of the area for the weekend. I will mention the chance of a lingering storm or two Saturday, then mainly dry and fairly hot (low to mid 90s) conditions Sunday through Tuesday.


Colin died a rather quick death yesterday due to lots of shear and is currently a remnant low. We will monitor for any signs of re-organization.


Here comes the heat....

>> Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Our respite from heat officially comes to an end around the region today. Highs will return to the lower 90s in most areas with a partly sunny sky. While a few isolated showers are possible, most places will remain dry.

Tomorrow will be hotter still with highs in the mid 90s for most. The possibility of a few afternoon storms will also be with us.

Highs Thursday will warm into the mid to even upper 90s in spots, and I expect scattered afternoon storms as our next cold front inches closer. That front will move in here Friday and give us good shower and storm chances.

Our weekend forecast will hinge on the southward progress of that cold front. As it stands now, it looks like the front will try to push into South Carolina this weekend, meaning the rain chance in North Carolina will be pretty low. Highs over the weekend look to be in the low to mid 90s.


TD 4 strengthened to Tropical Storm Colin as of the 5am advisory today. The system is in an environment that is supportive of slow strengthening over the next couple of days, although Colin will likely remain shy of hurricane strength. Thereafter, shear will likely increase, at least temporarily ending the strengthening potential.

As far as track, a general bend to the west-northwest or northwest should occur in several days, but questions arise thereafter. At this point, I would still say anybody from the Bahamas to Bermuda needs to keep an eye on this one, including the southeast US coast.

**Be sure and check out the video above for lots of talk about Colin.**


TD 4

>> Monday, August 02, 2010

Tropical Depression 4 is alive in the Atlantic. Lots of good info in the Tropical Weather section of the site. And remember, tropical updates at :21 and :51 past the hour on News 14 Carolina!


Heating back up this week...Colin in the tropics???

What a cool down over the weekend! One of our cold air damming scenarios set itself up, and highs were drastically cooler over the weekend compared to what we saw for much of July. In fact, the high of 72 at the PTI Airport yesterday was cool enough to be the coolest high temp every recorded on August 1.

Today, the early August sun should work on our persistent desk of stratus clouds with time, and those clouds should gradually decrease through the day. How quickly the clouds erode is the big forecast challenge today, and that will determine our high temps. Generally speaking, I am going with mid 80s for much of the region, but again, it depends on the speed with which the clouds erode.

Tomorrow we will see the return of lower 90s around the area with a partly cloudy sky. The, look for mid 90s Wednesday and mid to upper 90s Thursday.

A few PM storms are possible Wednesday, and then Thursday and Friday will see pretty good chances of some showers and storms as our next cold front approaches.

That front will slowly try to push south of the region over the weekend, but whether or not will completely clear out of the area remains to be seen.


A tropical wave about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands continues to organize, and there is a very good chance this becomes our next classified tropical system. When/ if it becomes a tropical storm, the name will be Colin.

A general west-northwest motion should continue for this system, and by Sunday or so this could be in the Bahamas. Stay tuned....

Remember, the Tropical Weather section of the site has lots of good info.....


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