Saturday evening...

>> Saturday, January 17, 2009

Quick update here...

Moisture with our system late tonight and tomorrow looks very anemic. I can't rule out a little bit if precip in the Charlotte or Triad zones, but it just does not looks like a big deal. A few areas of light rain or a few snowflakes are possible, but that should be about it.

Still watching the next little disturbance that will roll through Monday. 18z NAM actually prints out some QPF (0.185" at CLT) in the form of snow in the Piedmont. Likely not a big deal, but maybe hope is still alive for at least a few flakes in the air.

Also, like I have been mentioning for a while, more of a split flow pattern should develop by late week into the weekend. I am not overly excited about anything yet, but this time of year, it doesn't take a WAY below normal airmass to create some wintry weather. So we will see if anything develops....


Frigid....snow chances?

>> Friday, January 16, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I discuss a lot of stuff in there....give it a look.
No doubt, our arctic airmass has settled in. Low temps in the Piedmont this morning were in the lower teens in many spots, and many mountain spots went below 0....even down to -10 in some instances.

Today will be cold all day with highs only making it into the mid to upper 20s for much of the Piedmont.

It still looks like we will be a few ticks colder tonight that what we saw this morning. I expect many Piedmont locations to dip into the upper single digits. Please continue to take all of the cold weather precautions discussed earlier.

It will still be cold tomorrow with highs struggle to make it to near fact, some spots will remain below freezing again tomorrow.

The forecast gets very complex Sunday through Tuesday. The GFS continues to advertise a chance of snow, mixed with rain at spots, Sunday. Meanwhile, the European model keeps us dry with the Sunday system and instead develops a good low pressure area Monday night and Tuesday with the next disturbance dropping down. So, you essentially have some models jumping on the first system as the one that will develop while other models (mainly the EUro) are jumping on the second one.

I have included a chance of light snow, mixed with rain in spots, Sunday in the Piedmont, and I have a chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday. What will probably happen is one of those precip chances will become the primary one while the other system fades away...too soon to tell which one yet though.

Still looks like a brief warm-up mid-week before more cold air arrives about a week from now.


Here comes the cold....

>> Thursday, January 15, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

The arctic outbreak, that we have been discussing for quite a while, is indeed moving in today. High temps will be in the mid 30s for most today, and those highs will occur by early afternoon. Temps will drop by late afternoon, and by tomorrow morning we will be in the low to mid teens here in the Piedmont.

Tomorrow, despite a sunny sky, high temps will only be in the mid to possibly upper 20s. Then, we will see even colder low temperatures Saturday morning. If the sky stays clear and the wind very light (at this point it appears that will happen), then many folks will likely dip into the single digits. Highs then on Saturday will likely not make it above freezing in many Piedmont locations.

Folks, this is serious cold. Check on anyone you know that might not have access to heat. Wrap up any exposed pipes, and leave you faucets dripping inside. And certainly don't leave any pets outside.

I have left in the chance of some light snow in Sunday's forecast, and it still looks like a few flakes are possible on Monday and/or Tuesday. At this point, this still does not look like anything significant, but it bears watching.

Temps will modify a bit later next work week, but I think we will see another push of colder air move in by the following weekend.

See the video above for lots of good info...


Brutal air moves in tomorrow...

>> Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a are worth a thousand words.

Today will be chilly, but it will feel downright warm compared to what is coming. Highs today will be in the low to mid 40s, and we might not be that warm again until the middle of next week.

The arctic air will surge in there tomorrow. Highs will likely be in the mid 30s at best in much of the Piedmont. It will be blustery, and wind chill values will be in the 20s all day.

Temps will plummet tomorrow night and most will be in the mid teens by Friday morning. Highs Friday will not make it out of the 20s, and then lows will probably be a few ticks colder Saturday morning than Friday morning. Saturday morning is when the best chance of seeing some single digits will occur.

As I mentioned in the video, I think the GFS is lost when it comes to Sunday and Monday. The European is likely much more correct than what the GFS has been showing.

So, I continue to mention a chance of some light snow Sunday and possibly Monday as well. If the Euro is correct, some accumulating snow would likely occur in the Carolinas, but I have no confidence in any of the specifics right now. Who knows, the GFS could score a coup, but I doubt it.


Arctic Air on the Move...

>> Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

There is an area of low pressure riding northeastward off of the Carolina coast today, and that is bringing rain to places like Wilmington and the Outer Banks. However, most of the Piedmont will remain dry with just some mid and high level clouds.

The sky will clear tonight with lows in the 20s. Tomorrow will feature a good bit of sun and highs in the 40s. The NC mountains will pick up some accumulating snow showers tonight.

The big weather storm remains the arctic air heading our way. This will be the coldest air so far this season. Highs Friday will likely be in the 20s with lows way down in the teens Friday and Saturday morning. It remains possible that some outlying spots could dip into the single digits as well.

As far as precip is concerned, for the next 5-7 days it will mainly depend on upper level energy diving in here from the northwest. Typically, you don't get big precip events that way unless everything lines up exactly right. With that said, I have included a possibility of a little light snow in the forecast for Sunday. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing some light precip around that times, and the Euro model shows a nice upper air disturbance rolling into the region Sunday and/or Monday. However, the exact nature of any precip chance, if it occurs at all, remains in question.

At this point, it does not look like a big deal.


House repairs under way...

>> Monday, January 12, 2009


Sunny Monday...Arctic Express on the Way...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a watch...

Sunshine today with highs in the upper 40s to around 50.

The first in a series of clipper system will approach us tonight into tomorrow. We will see clouds increasing tonight as an area of low pressure develops off of the Southeast coast. As tomorrow unfolds, some mainly light rain will spread through the eastern Carolinas, probably at least as far westward as Raleigh. Whether or not the rain makes it as far as Charlotte or the Triad is a question mark, but it looks like the lower 3-4 thousand feet of the atmosphere will be warm enough for the precip to remain in the form of rain even if it does make it back this far.

A big-time plunge of arctic air will begin flowing in here Thursday. Thursday will likely be a day with falling temps in the afternoon as the cold air blows in. For the Triad market this morning, I have a low temp of 12 degrees for both Friday and Saturday morning, with a highs Friday of 30. We very well could see single digits in some spots, especially Saturday morning, if the sky remains clear and winds light.

There is some potential for a storm system around next Monday, but details are sketchy at best.


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