Ana has formed....TD 3 on the way...

>> Saturday, August 15, 2009

Former Tropical Depression 2 has continued to organize itself, and it has now become Tropical Storm Ana. It will come close to the northeast Caribbean Islands and then bend in the general direction of Florida by around Thursday.

The intensity forecast on Ana is very problematic. Some guidance dissipates the system altogether. However, some guidance ramps this thing up into a Category 2 hurricane.

For at least a few days, I would lean more toward Ana staying on the weaker side of things. It is unlikely to dissipate, but it is still going to be battling dry air for at least several days, and it will be tough for any explosive strengthening.

The weaker Ana stays, the more likely it is to try and sneak across Florida or the Keys and into the Gulf.

Our powerful tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic should become Tropical Depression 3 this morning and then Bill soon thereafter. I think the intensity forecast with this one is a little more straight-forward. Bill-to-be will not have the degree of dry air to battle that Ana does, and shear shouldn't be a HUGE factor. So, overall things still look good for Bill-to-be to become a significant tropical system.

The track guidance is a little tougher with this one though. The European continues to take it way north and recurves it way out in the Atlantic. The latest Canadian also recurves it out in the Atlantic. Most of the other guidance still indicates some sort of US landfall.

Bill-to be's track will be influenced greatly by the intensity and track of Ana. Ana's strength will play a roll in the strength in the ridge north of the systems, and that will play a big role in Bill's eventual track.

At this point, all interests from the Eastern Seaboard down through Florida and over into the central Gulf coast need to closely monitor the progress of these two systems.


Warm with only isolated storms...

>> Friday, August 14, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of tropical talk in there as well as the usual discussion of our weather.

Today's forecast is very similar to yesterday's in the Carolinas....partly sunny with mid to upper 80s for highs. Again today and tomorrow, the best opportunity of showers and storms will be in the eastern part of the state. For the Triad and Charlotte zones, only isolated storms.

A little better chance of some showers and storms could be with us Sunday with highs in the upper 80s.

Monday and Tuesday look mainly dry with highs not far from 90, then a better chance of some showers and storms arrives Wednesday.

Tropics: The remnant low of TD 2 is trying to refire some convection today, and it stands at least a small chance of trying to re-develop. Whatever can redevelop out of that will likely affect the Southeast coast around Wednesday or Thursday next week.

A powerful tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is on the verge of becoming a classified tropical system. I still think this has a good shot of becoming a significant tropical system, and an eventual US landfall is possible...8-11 days from now.

Note on the left-hand column you can see the latest satellite image and computer model plots for both systems.


Warmer with less rain...

>> Thursday, August 13, 2009

Take a look at the Carolina Weather Video above....lots of discussion about the tropics and our weekend weather.

Some drier air has slipped into the western Carolinas, and that will greatly reduce the number of showers and storms around our area today and tomorrow. Sure, a few isolated showers or storm are possible, but they will be few and fay between. Look for a partly sunny sky both days with highs in the mid to possibly upper 80s in spots.

Moisture will increase again over the weekend, and therefore I expect the daily coverage of showers and storms to increase again Saturday through Monday afternoons. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90.

Most of next work week looks warm and humid with some chance of a few PM storms each day.

In the tropics, TD 2 is losing the battle with dry air at the moment, and it could dissipate altogether today. If it survives the day, it still could become a tropical storm at some point into the weekend.

As I have been mentioning, I think a bigger problem could be the strong tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. That has the potential to become a much more significant tropical system with time.


Shower and storm chances....tropics.....

>> Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Take a look at today's video, docked above...I take a detailed look at the tropics as well as the upcoming weather here in the Carolinas.

Our 4-day heat wave is over, and the forecast for the next several days will be highlighted by good chances of showers and storms at times. Highs today will be in the lower 80s, with low to mid 80s likely tomorrow.

Like we saw yesterday, some storms could be strong to severe, and we will watch that closely.

For the weekend, Saturday still looks fairly active with lots of showers and storms, but the coverage of storms look to decrease with the temps increasing by Sunday and early next work week. Highs by Monday or Tuesday could return to the lower 90s.

In the tropics, TD2 could become Tropical Storm Ana at any point. It is possible that it could threaten some part of the US about a week from now, but it is too soon to know for sure.

And, I still think the tropical wave located just off the African coast has a good shot of becoming a significant system....if that were to threaten the US, it would likely be about 10-12 days from now.


One more day of heat....

>> Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I talk about the mini-heat wave breaking, the unsettled weather ahead, and I take a detailed look at the tropics. **Note I cut the video about an hour to TD 2 forming.**

We have one more day of our little mini-heat wave to make it though before highs drop back into the 80s. However, it is hot today with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values approaching 100. A few showers and storms will likely pop up this afternoon as well.

A cold front is approaching from the northwest, and that front will increase the chances of showers and storms as we head through tonight and tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will only be in the mid 80s for most.

That front will stall out around the area, so each day through the weekend will feature good chances of some showers and storms with highs in the 80s.

In the tropics, Tropical Depression 2 has formed from the tropical wave that is west of the Cape Verde Islands. It will continue on a generally west-northwest track into the weekend while slowly strengthening. It is too early for any certainty as to whether this will impact the U.S.

I am putting up a bunch of helpful links for tracking TD2 in the left side column.


Hottest day of the year so far....tropics heating up...

>> Monday, August 10, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I discuss the mini-heat wave we are in, some unsettled weather ahead, and the tropics. Interesting stuff this morning....give it a look....

High temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s today, and heat index values will eclipse the 100 degree mark at times this afternoon. This is a day where you need to use caution when spending time outside. Take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water.

An isolated late-day storm is possible, but most spots should stay dry today.

Tomorrow will still be quite hot with mid 90s for highs. A cold front will get closer to our area, and I expect a better chance of some afternoon showers and storms.

Wednesday through the weekend look fairly unsettled with good chances for some showers and storms each day and highs in the 80s.

In the tropics, no classified systems yet, but a couple of tropical waves have emerged off of Africa, and they bear close watching.


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