>> Thursday, January 04, 2007

The warmth that we will see tonight through Saturday is really something you don't see too often in early January. Now, let's not get carried away...this is not "freakish warmth" or "unbelievable warmth," but it is certainly well above average. In fact, some spots will be close to record highs tomorrow and Saturday.

Again, let me hit the highlights of the next several days....

  • Mild tonight with some mainly light rain spreading in.
  • Cold front moves through Friday evening. Ahead of it, look for some showers and storms...severe weather is still a possibility...stay with News 14 Carolina for details.
  • Saturday is dry and warm.
  • Rain spreads back in Sunday through Sunday night. Some healthy rain totals could occur at that time.
  • Colder weather moves in for a good part of next work week. That shot of colder weather should return our temps pretty close to average Monday through Thursday.
Deeper into the month, I continue to like the idea of a pattern change to colder weather over the eastern US. The time-frame is still up in the air, but I definitely think the second half of January will feature some strong intrusions of cold weather.

On another note, the East family is hitting the road Friday to spend some time with family out of state. So, I don't know how much I will be able to post over the next several days, if at all. If not before, I will be able to post again Wednesday when I am back here at work. So, everyone have a great weekend!


>> Wednesday, January 03, 2007

I hope you all are having a great 2007 so far!

Complex weather situation over the next several days...some highlights....

  • Much above average temps through the weekend.
  • Chance for some showers with the warm-frontal passage Thursday night.
  • Muggy airmass takes hold Friday....dps up in the 60s.
  • Cold front moves through Friday night. Showers and storms look like a good bet. It looks to me that severe weather potential will have to be monitored.
  • Most of the weekend I think we squeeze in most of the weekend dry. However, another storm system will spread more rain in late Sunday through early Monday.
  • Cooler air takes hold with highs in the 50s and sub-freezing lows Tuesday and Wednesday.
Out into the longer range, the east Aiso teleconnection continues to indicate the potential for a major eastern US trough between the 12th and 17th. So far, it is not showing up too well on most operational models right now.

It still looks like the AO wants to tank by mid-January. I am not a guy who treats the teleconnection indices like Gospel, but I do think that is a warning shot being fired, and I still like the idea of a colder pattern taking hold for much of the second half of January. The NAO still does not appear to want to go strongly negative within the next two weeks, so I think at least through 15th or possibly 20th, any cold shots will likely be transient in nature. But, I do get the feeling we are beginning to march toward a more sustained period of cold weather for the eastern US, and I still think that pattern will show itself as we head through the second half of the month.

Everyone have a great night. I will be the met for the Triad on the evening shift Thursday. See you then!


Sunday Evening

>> Sunday, December 31, 2006

Not a whole lot of time tonight, but I wanted to put up a few quick thoughts.

Rain moves on through tonight...maybe even a few rumbles of thunder. But, not a huge deal....I don't anticipate flooding or severe weather. Temps will continue to slowly rise overnight.

The first week of the new year will be a mild one. I anticipate each high temp tomorrow through next weekend to be above average. However, I still like the idea of colder air invading the eastern US between January 10th and 15th. And, at that point, I think this prolonged above averate temp spell will be over for a while. Will we get locked into a bonafide cold weather pattern? Not sure as of yet.

Happy New Year everyone! Let's all make this a great year together!


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