>> Wednesday, January 03, 2007

I hope you all are having a great 2007 so far!

Complex weather situation over the next several days...some highlights....

  • Much above average temps through the weekend.
  • Chance for some showers with the warm-frontal passage Thursday night.
  • Muggy airmass takes hold Friday....dps up in the 60s.
  • Cold front moves through Friday night. Showers and storms look like a good bet. It looks to me that severe weather potential will have to be monitored.
  • Most of the weekend I think we squeeze in most of the weekend dry. However, another storm system will spread more rain in late Sunday through early Monday.
  • Cooler air takes hold with highs in the 50s and sub-freezing lows Tuesday and Wednesday.
Out into the longer range, the east Aiso teleconnection continues to indicate the potential for a major eastern US trough between the 12th and 17th. So far, it is not showing up too well on most operational models right now.

It still looks like the AO wants to tank by mid-January. I am not a guy who treats the teleconnection indices like Gospel, but I do think that is a warning shot being fired, and I still like the idea of a colder pattern taking hold for much of the second half of January. The NAO still does not appear to want to go strongly negative within the next two weeks, so I think at least through 15th or possibly 20th, any cold shots will likely be transient in nature. But, I do get the feeling we are beginning to march toward a more sustained period of cold weather for the eastern US, and I still think that pattern will show itself as we head through the second half of the month.

Everyone have a great night. I will be the met for the Triad on the evening shift Thursday. See you then!


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