Friday Early Evening..

>> Friday, October 19, 2007

Many spots saw some much-needed rain late last night and this morning. However, the tap has been for the most part shut off since that point in time. However, the cold front is crossing the mountains as I type this and there is a line of showers and storms right ahead of that front. This evening will feature the chance for a few showers or storms before the front sweeps through and ends any rain chances.

The weekend will be fantastic with highs in the 70s and lows Sunday morning in the 40s. Fall foliage is looking nice up in the mountains, and the folks up at Grandfather Mountain report that foliage above 3700' is at its peak now. So, check out those leaves this weekend...the weather will be wonderful...highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Model madness continues next week with most modeling now going to the cut-off low scenario. With that in mind, I have now kept Monday dry in the forecast and brought in lots of clouds with an occasional shower chance beginning Tuesday or Wednesday and lasting through at least Friday. We shall see....


Thursday Evening Update...

>> Thursday, October 18, 2007

Severe weather remains a big concern tonight from the Great Lakes all of the way down into Mississippi and Alabama. Damaging winds and tornadoes remain possible in that region.

For North Carolina, showers will be possible as the night unfolds, and there could be a rumble of thunder or two as well.

Our best shot of showers and storms probably comes Friday ahead of the actual cold front. A few storms could be locally strong to severe Friday afternoon with damaging winds being the primary concern. In terms of rain amounts, I think 0.5" to 1" is a good estimate, although I have some concerns about the Gulf of Mexico inflow into the Carolinas getting cut off.

I think the pattern evolution next week is getting a little clearer. Today's 12z run of the Euro has come around to recent GFS solutions on keeping a full latitude trough in tact as it moves through the eastern U.S. Previous Euro runs has split a piece of the trough off into a closed upper air low over the southern Rockies or Plains states.

If the trough stays full latitude, then we will probably see some showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday and then turn much chillier for the second half of next week.


Thursday Afternoon Check-In

The atmosphere off to our west from the Great Lakes all of the way down to the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys is primed for severe weather problems this afternoon and this evening. A large 'moderate' risk of severe weather exists over much of that region. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main concerns there.

Notice on the satellite imagery below the cumulus clouds popping up over much of that region. There has been lots of sunshine there this afternoon, and we will probably see some very healthy storms developing soon.***Images above will not update...this is the view from early afternoon.**

For our area, the best opportunity for rain and storms will be late tonight through tomorrow. Depending on how things unfold to our west, we could see some locally strong to severe storms tomorrow, and we will watch it closely. Stay tuned!


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