Shower and storm chances creeping back in...

>> Friday, May 21, 2010

Clouds are increasing today as our next system crawls closer to our region. As the day unfolds, the chance for a few showers and storms in the Piedmont of NC will increase as activity off to the west and southwest progresses our way. Highs today will mainly be in the upper 70s.

I anticipate showers at times tonight, and a fairly unsettled weekend is on tap. It will not rain all weekend, but I do expect some showers and storms at times both weekend days. A few strong to severe storms are also possible. Highs will be toward the upper 70s both days.

Next week, it still appears an area of low pressure will form in the western Atlantic and head toward the Carolina coast Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact track that low tracks, it could wind up enhancing or decreasing shower chances in the Piedmont.

For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances for showers Monday through Wednesday for the Piedmont and especially the Coastal Plain.


Dry Thursday....storms again this weekend...

>> Thursday, May 20, 2010

Another significant tornado outbreak occurred yesterday evening and night in parts of Oklahoma, and the severe weather threat today shifts to an area from roughly Dallas into the Ozarks and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

For the Carolinas, this will be a dry day with a partly cloudy sky and highs in the upper 70s.

The system that has been producing all of the severe weather will continue to slowly shift eastward while gradually weakening as well. The system will be close enough that a few afternoon storms look possible late tomorrow in the mountains and possibly the foothills and western Piedmont. Highs tomorrow will warm into the lower 80s for most.

Over the weekend, the chances of at least scattered showers and storms look pretty good....especially during the afternoon and evening hours. If you have outdoor plans, be aware it will likely not be a wash out, but some showers and storms will have to be dodged from time to time.

I will maintain the chance of some scattered showers and storms in the forecast through at least Wednesday next week.

Interestingly enough, a lot of modeling is trying to develop some type of tropical system in the western Atlantic early next work week, and whatever could develop might wind up close to the Carolina coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. That might wind up enhancing the rain chances at some point next week.


Quieter weather for a few days...

>> Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Some areas of locally heavy rain occurred overnight last night, especially from parts of Rowan county eastward across Davidson and Randolph counties. In fact, a few localized spots received over 3" of rain in Randolph county.

Today, I will forecast a partly sunny sky, and most Piedmont locations should see 70s for highs. There will be a chance for a few afternoon showers, but they will be scattered in nature, and I anticipate many folks remaining dry for the rest of the day.

Tomorrow and Friday now look dry with highs tomorrow in the upper 70s and up into the lower to mid 80s Friday.

Over the weekend, another system will track off to our north. However, it will be close enough to bring us the chance of some scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday.

It still looks like we will get into a maritime flow off of the Atlantic next week, and that means some clouds and shower chances at times.


Challenging temperature forecast today...

>> Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Showers and moved through overnight last night continue to push into the Atlantic Ocean this morning, but lots of low status clouds remain across the region. Today's temperature forecast all depends on how quickly we see any erosion of that stratus deck.

Imagine looking up above our heads. A little bit above the ground, we have this deck of stratus clouds. However, once you get above that, the air is very dry. That will allow the sun to try and erode those stratus clouds with time. However, how much success the sun will have is a big question mark, and that makes for a low-confidence temperature forecast today. For the Triad, I will go with mid to maybe upper 60s....maybe low to mid 70s around Charlotte and lower 70s around Raleigh.

A few showers will likely develop late this afternoon, but those showers will dissipate quickly this evening.

Tomorrow and Thursday look dry with highs in the 70s.

The weather pattern looks unsettled again as we head into the upcoming weekend. Daily shower and storm chances again look high both weekend days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and highs will likely be in the 70s.


More rain and storms today....

>> Monday, May 17, 2010

After an unsettled weekend with scattered severe storms both weekend days and a soaking blanket of rain last night, we will remain unsettled today. Look for periods of rain and storms today. Some storms could again be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Also, the ground is obviously quite wet, so additional flash flooding problems are quite possible.

The storm system begins to pull away tomorrow. It will still be close enough to mention the chance of a few afternoon showers, but the chances will be much lower than today. Highs should be in the 70s tomorrow, and some sun should return in intervals.

Wednesday and Thursday look quite with a partly sunny sky and highs in the 70s Wednesday and close to 80 Thursday.

More unsettled weather will move back in for Friday and the weekend with some more afternoon scattered thunderstorm chances.



>> Sunday, May 16, 2010

Scattered strong and severe storms were around the region yesterday afternoon and well into the night in some spots. If you were one of the many spots that missed out on the rain yesterday, hang on....plenty more storms are on the way.

Look for a healthy coverage of scattered showers and storms to fire off this afternoon. Just like yesterday, the storms will be vivid lightning producers in addition to heavy rain, hail, and wind potential.

As upper level energy approaches later tonight (see below), I expect the coverage of rain and storms to actually increase as we get deeper into the overnight hours. So, odds are we will have a healthy area of activity around the area later tonight and through tomorrow morning.

The opportunity for at least scattered showers and storms will linger through tomorrow.

Remember, any storms that fire could be severe with hail and wind potential. Also, this is a summertime airmass, so lightning will be prevalent. If you are close enough to a storm to hear thunder, you are close enough to get struck by lightning. So, at the first clap of thunder, take your plans indoors.

I will be in the weather office dark and early in the post and video in the morning if the weather allows....


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