Terrific Friday....soaking rain later this weekend...

>> Friday, January 15, 2010

We will finish out the work week in fantastic fashion with lots of sun and highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The first in a parade of system to impact the region over the next couple of weeks is still on schedule for this weekend. I think we will squeeze in the daylight hours tomorrow dry before a soaking rain arrives tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Then look for some showers at times Sunday as the upper level energy ripples overhead.

Total rain amounts will likely be in the 1-2" category, so a nice soaking appears on the way.

Monday and Tuesday still look dry next week, but another system will roll our way and bring some rain chances by the end of the work week. The GFS has at times indicated some wintry potential with that system, but I have a feeling it is a little too far south with the features over the eastern US, and I am leaning toward an all-liquid scenario at the moment.

Very cold air will build back into Canada as the month unfolds, and I still expect we will see that plunge back into the eastern US by the end of the month or early February.

Enjoy your weekend!


Nice weather today and tomorrow!

>> Thursday, January 14, 2010

As we continue our mid-January thaw, highs will warm into the 50s today and tomorrow. Some spots might even clip 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon!

No real changes here on our upcoming system this weekend. It still looks moisture-packed, and I expect a healthy rain event Saturday night and Sunday. I still think a widespread 1-2" rain event is on tap with this, and I don't anticipate any wintry weather issues in the Piedmont.

The El Nino will really flex its muscle over the next couple of weeks in the form of an active southern branch of the jet stream. It looks like we will see a storm system roll through every few days, and the next system will likely roll through by later Wednesday or Thursday next week.

I still anticipate a switch back to a colder pattern for the eastern US sometime by the end of the month or early February, but I don't have a great feel yet for exactly when that might occur.


Climbing out of the freezer....

>> Wednesday, January 13, 2010

We will see a nice warming trend around here over the next couple of days. Look for 40s for highs today with 50s tomorrow and Friday.

Still looks like a moisture-packed system will cruise through the region this weekend. I still think the period from Saturday night into Sunday is the most likely time for rain around North Carolina. Modeling continues to trend away from the potential for any freezing rain. There will be cold air damming taking place, but it does not look like the parent high over the Northeast will be strong enough to push surface temps below freezing.

I still expect the next couple of weeks to be much milder overall than how we have started the month, but I still anticipate a pattern change back to colder weather sometime by the end of the month or early February....


Warmer weather on the way...

>> Tuesday, January 12, 2010

A little re-enforcing shot of colder air today and tonight, then a marked warm-up through the end of the work week.

Our system this weekend is interesting. With the exception of the European model, all modeling is indicating a cold, suppressed look for this system. I have gone with an all-liquid forecast for the Piedmont this morning with this system, but if the colder, suppressed solution verifies, it at least bears watching for at least brief period of freezing rain in the foothills and northwest Piedmont.

See the video for details on that system and the upcoming pattern. General synopsis....a milder pattern for the next couple of weeks, but the pattern looks to re-load to a cold pattern in the eastern US by the end of the month of early February.


Sunday evening...

>> Sunday, January 10, 2010

**Just a quick housekeeping note....I will not be in the office Monday morning, so no new video will be posted until Tuesday morning.**

We will slowly crawl out of the deep freeze over the next several days with highs in the 40s tomorrow and some 50s later in the week.

Our next storm system is still on tap for next weekend. It has the makings of an unusual system....a closed upper low in the southern stream. Models don't typically handle southern stream features particularly well....throw in the we could be dealing with a closed upper low in the upper levels, and that gives me exactly zero confidence in any one model solution.

The European model continues to play with the idea of the possibility of some wintry weather around the western Carolinas with the system, while the GFS has been all over the board....even indicating severe weather potential for much of Georgia with the 18z Sunday run.

So, no confidence on this one yet. Looks to be a moisture-laden system, so some areas of heavy rain could occur, and if we see enough cold air damming with the system, some wintry weather possibilities could also be on the table. But again, zero confidence.


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