Gulf low pressure...

>> Friday, May 22, 2009

Our Gulf low is organizing tonight, and it could become a tropical system prior to landfall tomorrow. I have put the NHC RSS feed right above this post.


Warm and muggy...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Warm, muggy weather is here, and it is going to be with us for a while. Highs today will top out in the lower 80s under a sky featuring a mixture of sun and clouds.

Lots of folks have various outdoor activities scheduled for the Memorial Day weekend, and overall the weather looks pretty good. If you are beach-bound, look for warm conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with just a very small chance of an isolated PM shower or storm. Up in the mountains, the chance of a few afternoon storms is a little higher, but still not too bad. Mountain highs will be in the 70s.

Here around the Piedmont, look for lower 80s for highs tomorrow into next week. The vast majority of the area should remain dry, but there could be a handful of isolated showers or storms each afternoon. However, the chance of rain each day in any one spot is very low. So, if any weather problems develop out at Lowe's Motor Speedway, they should be brief.

Tropical moisture from what is left of the low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico could interact with an approaching cold front and enhance our chance of showers and storms toward the end of next work week.

Stayed up to watch the Hurricanes-Penguins Game 2 last night....Pens were simply too much in the 3rd period. The series now shifts to Raleigh for Game 3 Saturday night.


Muggier air moving in...

>> Thursday, May 21, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

Instead of northeast winds, our winds have now shifted out of the east and eventually southeast, ushering in a muggier airmass from the Atlantic Ocean. So we began the day with temps in the 50s and 60s instead of the 30s and 40s.

Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with a partly cloudy sky. Lows again tonight will drop in the upper 50s.

We are still watching an area of low pressure spin up down in the Gulf of Mexico, but at least for the next few days, the tropical rains from that low will remain south and west of us. So, we are looking at a primarily dry forecast through the holiday weekend with a partly cloudy sky, highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the 60s, and fairly muggy conditions. I can't rule out a chance of an isolated PM shower or storm each day, but most spots will likely remain dry through the weekend.

When and/or if we eventually get into the moisture from whatever is left of the Gulf low remains a question mark. Some modeling (Canadian, European) says we will by Monday or Tuesday....others (GFS) say we won't until at least Wednesday or Thursday.


Another nice one...

>> Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

It feels like an uphill battle this morning. I stayed up later than normal watching the season finale of '24' and then watching some of the Wings-Blackhawks game. And Evie has developed another minor cold, so she did not sleep as well as she normally does. But alas, we press onward.

It was another chilly start to our day with lows in the low to mid 40s in the Piedmont and some mountain spots again down into the 30s.

However, temps will quickly warm today under a mostly sunny sky with highs reaching the mid 70s for most.

It will not be as chilly tonight with lows in the 50s.

Conditions will continue to gradually get warmer and muggier tomorrow with highs near 80 and a good amount of sunshine. Look for low to mid 80s Friday into the weekend.

Obviously this weekend is Memorial Day weekend and lots of folk have outdoor plans, including the big race at Lowe's Motor Speedway. There the weather will not be good is along the Gulf coast from Florida through Louisiana....5-10 inches of rain are likely in that region over the next several days as an area of low pressure moves through the Gulf.

Around here, while I can't rule out an isolated shower storm over the weekend, it looks like most of us will remain dry, warm, and muggy.

It is possible the remnants of that low could pull some deep tropical moisture up our way by Tuesday enhancing rain chances, but that is a question mark.


Chilly morning, nice afternoon...

>> Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

We had a taste of Winter out there this morning with Piedmont lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. I don't know about you, but I really enjoy a morning like this morning. It will not be long before we are entrenched in the muggies of Summer, so enjoy the nice clean, dry airmass.

The Charlotte airport set a new record low by hitting 40 this morning....the PTI airport missed setting a new record by 1 degree with a low of 42.

Today will be a fantastic day with sunshine and highs in the lower 70s.

It will be fairly chilly again tonight with lows in the mid 40s. Then we gear up for another great day tomorrow with lots of sun and highs in the mid 70s.

The GFS has indeed trended toward most of the other modeling. So it still looks like we will remain dry through the work week. However, moisture does increase enough that I will mention a chance of some scattered storms by Sunday and Memorial Day.

That will entirely depend on a developing area of low pressure near Florida. Most models take that low westward and then into the central Gulf coast. Some development is possible with this low, and it is within the realm of possibility that it could become a subtropical storm at some point.

If the remnants of that low eventually track up in our direction (as the Canadian model shows this morning), we could see a wet couple of days early next week. However, it is impossible to have any confidence in that possibility as of yet.



>> Monday, May 18, 2009

Our first area to watch of the season. This is the low pressure I discuss in the video below....


Cool to start the week...

Above is this morning's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

After a steady rain for much of the night, the rain is gone this morning, and sunshine will return to the area today. However, a cooler airmass has arrived and highs will only be in the 60s this afternoon.

Tonight will be a chilly one with many spots near 40 degrees for a low....even upper 30s for some. Many Piedmont locations will challenge record low temps tomorrow morning. Up in the mountains, many spots will see a frost, and a light freeze is possible in some locations.

Fantastic weather will be with us tomorrow and Wednesday with lots of sun. Highs tomorrow be in the lower 70s with highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.

Later this week, the GFS wants to bring in lots of rain chances later Thursday through the weekend. However, I have a hunch that solution is not correct, and I have left the forecast dry right through the weekend. However, it will get warmer and muggier for the second half of the week.


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