Saturday morning....

>> Saturday, March 02, 2013

The overnight model runs continue to indicate the potential of a significant mid-week storm system. In fact, it would seem the Euro, Canadian, UKMET, and GFS all wind up printing out snow in a good chunk of NC and definitely much of Virginia.

To me, this is definitely an odd setup. On many models, the surface low tracks right over NC. At first glance, you would typically discard the opportunity for much in the way of accumulating snow when you are dealing with snow on the backside of a departing low (cold chasing moisture).

However, this system is getting it done on the modeling due to very intense (and in some cases, extreme) dynamics as the low pressure rapidly strengthens near the coast. On the European model, it would turn into a downright blizzard in parts of NC into Virginia.

The European model takes a further north track than some other models as the upper low moves through the Plains and Ohio Valley, but then the system dives and just bombs out and essentially stalls near the NC coast.

Interesting for sure.

Snow fans..... please, manage your expectations. Dynamics and the exact track of the system are the big keys with this one. If the track adjusts further north, that would put much of NC out of the game. If the system is weaker with less dynamics involved, you could see rain with little to no snow on the backside.

I am getting an idea as to the areas that have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow with this system, but I want to see a few more model cycles before throwing anything more specific out there.

The upper air disturbance of note will enter the North America obs network by we could see model adjustments from then on for sure.

One other note....still looks like some snow showers will continue to be a possibility for a while today. Check out the radar at 7:30am:


Anonymous 5:45 PM  
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