Thursday Evening...

>> Thursday, March 20, 2008

The models have not been kind to snow lovers in North Carolina today. I won't bore you with running down all of the models, but suffice to say, most models are no longer showing a huge snow event for the state. Now, GFS aside, a good number of models are still showing the potential for some snow in the Carolinas Sunday night or Monday, just not as much or as drastic as yesterday.

Just going off of the models, certainly any confidence in accumulating snow is rather low this evening. However, now is not the time for model-hugging. When you are dealing with a complex scenario like the one for Monday, the models are really going to struggle 4 days out. In fact, until the upper air disturbance makes it into the North American observation network (probably will not make it in until at least the 12z model cycle tomorrow), there will likely continue to be lots of model flip-flopping.

So, let's get down to it. What are the chances of a big snow for North Carolina? Not good, but simply because of all of the many variables that would have to line up perfectly.

My forecast thinking really remains unchanged from yesterday. I do think there is the potential for some snow in the Carolinas, but how great that potential is is still impossible to determine. Odds are we won't see any significant snow, but the chance is still out there.


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