3:30pm Update...

>> Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Rain with embedded storms beginning to roll into the area. The severe weather potential is not looking all that impressive. Like I have been mentioning here, we just don't have the instability in place for a big event. However, the winds aloft are screaming, and it would only take some relatively weak thunderstorms to tap into those winds and bring them down to the surface. So, a strong to severe storm is possible through the evening, but this just does not look like a big event.

On to Monday's event. Here is where I have to give the obligatory cautionary word....we are still talking about five days from now. However, the latest 12z GFS and European model are in-house, and both are showing snow for at least the western Carolinas.

While often times we see the dreaded northwest trend settle into the modeling as we approach an event, it might not be the case this time. If you are a snow fan, it certainly is a good sign to have both the Euro and the GFS generally agreeing with each other, as opposed to one being in one camp and the other being in another.

However, like I mentioned in the post earlier in the day, to get this type of event to unfold as is being depicted in the modeling right now, we have to have many, many variables line up exactly right. If one little things unfolds in a different manner, then *poof* goes our snow chances.

So, it is impossible to tell at this point whether or not we will see some snow. At this stage of the game, I would say confidence is beginning to increase that portions of the western Carolinas could see some snow Monday into Tuesday. However, it is FAR, FAR from set in stone. At this juncture, let's just call it something interesting to watch over the next several days.


Anonymous 7:14 PM  

It does appear to be a classic setup for a good snow across the charlotte region. And the right time of year to have plenty of moisture available. Usually it seems if it does snow in march...it snows quite a bit around here. Keeping hope alive. I realize its a few days away and things can change but i have to say it seems like the perfect setup

Anonymous 11:17 PM  

I would agree w/ ANON. With the Lacking of the NW Trend I also think we will be on the right track for a good early spring snowstorm. Like you and Jeff have been saying, it's still way, way down the road, but it's something to watch. I really do hope all the ingredients fall into place!!

Matthew East 8:45 AM  

Yeah, the models really were showing a classic set-up. Of course, the model agreement we had yesterday is shattered so far today. To be expected with a complex set-up like this one...

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