Noon Wednesday...

>> Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Still watching the severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening. This is a classic high shear / low instability environment for the approaching storm system. Often times in these scenarios, we end up with some low-topped thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds.

Surface temperatures and dewpoints are high enough to support severe weather here in the Piedmont. However, temperatures aloft are warmer than they usually are in these types of storm system. That is why the instability is lacking. So, this is really just a wait and see deal around here. If severe weather develops, damaging winds would be the primary threat.

Above is the damaging wind probability graphic from the SPC.

Now, let me briefly discuss Monday. Remember, we are five days away, and lots will change. The players are on the table for a big snowstorm from the mid-Atlantic up through the New England states. However, events like this require perfect timing of features at many different layers of the other words, it is difficult to do.

The 0z runs of the GFS and the European model today were almost textbook examples of a western North Carolina snowstorm. I have posted a couple of frames below. Will it happen? Impossible to tell right now. But, I have mentioned rain and some snow chances in my forecast for Monday. It is obviously late in the season, but if things line up correctly, it can happen. But will it???


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