Early Wednesday Morning....

>> Wednesday, January 16, 2008

The last couple of model runs have come in a touch colder for tonight's event. I just poured through the 6z NAM and GFS forecast soundings for Charlotte and Winston-Salem...

I still like the idea of a period of snow, maybe mixed with some sleet, tonight. The precip will eventually change over to either freezing rain or rain tomorrow morning, depending on surface temps at your location.

For the Charlotte metro, I still think 1-2" of of snow, maybe a bit more in localized spots, could fall tonight. After that, the modeling then keeps the surface temp at CLT JUST above freezing for the rest of the event. It is close though.

For the Triad, 1-3" of snow look possible before what could be a fairly significant period of freezing rain. Then, around a quarter inch or so if freezing rain looks possible.

I still think there will be some travel problems in the morning around the region. The commute could very well be a mess.

Taken verbatim, this looks like a relatively minor event for Charlotte itself, but the potential for more significant accumulations of snow or ice increase the farther west or north you live in the region....i.e. Cleveland and Iredell counties. And, it would only take being a degree or two colder tomorrow than currently indicated by models for this to be more significant for Charlotte.

For the Triad, this looks more significant. Travel could become difficult in many spots tomorrow morning, and there could be some power outages if we do see 0.25" of ice on top of some snow.

It is just about time to put the models away and "nowcast"...in other words, watch the actual weather currently occurring. I will say the precip shield has not made it quite as far north in Louisiana and Mississippi as the NAM had indicated at this point. We will see if that trend continues....that might indicate lesser precip amounts in North Carolina if that trend continues.

I will post more updates through the day.....


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