Sunday Evening....

>> Sunday, January 13, 2008

I don't have a lot of changes to my thoughts regarding Thursday's storm system. The GFS continues on with rather amazing consistency in indicating the Gulf of Mexico low pressure developing Wednesday night and moving to near the Carolina coast by Thursday. The 12z Euro model has now trended toward the GFS with its timing of the system, and almost all modeling is indicating precip moving in either Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Taken verbatim, the GFS continue to show (for the Charlotte and Triad areas) a period of snow changing over to sleet/freezing rain and probably eventually plain rain.

How exactly this all plays out will remain up in the air for a couple of more days.

Model trends will be important to watch. We do not want to see the dreaded 'northwest trend' develop with the low pressure this time. The farther west the low winds up tracking, the less wintry precip we would see.

So, as of this evening, I still think the potential is very much alive for some wintry precip in the western Carolinas Wednesday night into Thursday.

Remember, things can and probably will change at least somewhat between now and then.

What I try to do here on the blog is basically open up my mind and throw out there the possibilities I am looking at and how I see them as of now. I hope you folks find it useful and at least a bit interesting.


Felipe Snark 6:37 PM  

I'm glad the weather has turned cooler, I want it to feel like winter! How are the models looking right now with regards to the Triangle (say Chapel Hill) for wintry weather with this mid-week storm system?

Anonymous 7:05 PM  

So the atmosphere will probably be cold enough to support snow? Also what do you think will happen?

Matthew East 7:57 PM  

Gregory.....Well, at face value on the GFS, your area would start as snow and change over eventually to all rain. The farther east you live in NC, the lower your chances for wintry weather. But it really is too early for too many specifics.

Anonymous...As it stands now, yes the atmosphere (on the GFS) is initially cold enough to support snow before the upper levels begin to warm and precip begins to change over.

As for what I think, it is just too early. I think we have a chance at seeing some wintry precip, but it is too soon for any confidence.

Anonymous 8:20 PM  

I live back in good ole mayberry nc in the foothills. Hopefully we can get some of the white stuff in here but I to have been looking at the gfs and don't know what is going to happen. I have sympathy now for the weather professionals. Do you buy the gfs snowfall amounts or am i the only one that doesn't buy that.


Anonymous 8:42 PM  

What kind of pattern do you think we will have over the next 3 weeks. I saw where the cold may shift east over that time. We are so overdue for winter weather.

Matthew East 8:50 PM  

You are in pretty good position there in 'Mayberry.' Theoretically, Surry county would be one of the last counties to change over. But it is all still speculation at this point. Thanks for the sympathy! But, if it was easy, it wouldn't be any fun! To your second question, I do not buy any one computer model solution is too soon. However, I do like the timing of precip moving in by Thursday morning. Most modeling has at least come around to that idea.

We are overdue! And, I still think the pattern for the rest of the month will be an exciting one. It still looks like we could head into a "split flow" pattern at some point toward the end of the month, and that usually leads to some wintry precip chances.

Let's all hope!

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