Monday Evening...

>> Monday, January 14, 2008

Above is the video I just it I explain my thinking with the Wednesday night into Thursday event, as it stands now.

In short, I really see no compelling reason to change my thinking. I think the GFS has a pretty good handle on this system at the moment.

AS IT STANDS NOW, it looks the Charlotte and Triad regions will see a period of snow Wednesday night into early Thursday. How long that snow would last is still in question, but I think several hours are a good possibility.

As Thursday morning unfolds, we will have an in-situ wedge set up, and how quickly that wedge erodes will determine precipitation types. The upper levels will warm with time, making snow more unlikely. However, we will probably see a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain mixture before kicking over to some light rain Thursday afternoon. As is usually the case in this type of scenario, the farther west you live, the more accumulation potential you have.

Accumulation amounts are still in question. And let me remind you...we are still a couple of days away from this, so some wholesale changes to this outlook might have to be made in the future.

But, as it looks now, I do think there is potential for travel disruptions for the Thursday morning commute. Be aware of that.

Thanks for stopping by!


Anonymous 8:37 PM  

Do you think the High is actually hanging in better with each model run?

Anonymous 9:11 PM  

I just wanted to say that i really enjoy your posts. They are very informative. I am keeping my fingers crossed for some accumulating white stuff. As you said I have noticed living in surry county we seem to be one of the last to break out of the wedge situations. Does this system seem to be like one in December of 2002 were we saw a few inches of snow then we went to ice. The freezing rain accumulation was kept down by our snowfall. Areas south and east had more ice accumulation. I have my fingers crossed for some accumulating white stuff in mayberry nc.

God Bless

Anonymous 11:20 PM  

If the NAM speeds up just 3 more hours, this is the biggest snowstorm since 2004.

I'm excited.

Anonymous 12:06 AM  

DISCLAIMER: Listen to Matthew and take the below with a grain of snow, er, salt....but here goes my closet forecast:

Do not like the position of the High...too far east. Thinking this will be more of an icing event than widespread snow.
Clockwise winds from the NE (High) and counter-clockwise from the SE (Low) equals a lot of wind coming in off the ocean and not artic source region which is normally required.
Expect I-77 and I-40 to be more of the dividing line (not I-85) of significant snow amounts with the CLT metro (and points NE) seeing a white ground that quickly melts/transitions into a raw, wet, and possibly icy midday on Thursday.
The trend I am looking for is more of an icing event vs. snow.
OK, back to my closet!
Thanks for the GREAT video updates.

Burgertime 8:03 AM  

Do you use Camtasia for your screen capturing? Seems whatever program your using there are some pretty bad glitches. I use Captivate 3.0 here at work, you might want to check it out.

Matthew East 8:48 AM  

The high pressure is in pretty good position for CAD at the beginning of the event. From that point on, the wedge should form and hold due to evaporational cooling.

Thanks for the kind words. I will have to look up the set-up for December 2002.

Anon....good analysis. I definitely have concerns about some icing in the western part of the area.

I am using Windows Media Encoder for the videos....I know the glitches are there, and they are very irritating to me. I will take a look at Captivate.

Burgertime 8:52 AM  

Ha oh ok, well Captivate is also 800 dollars so unless News14 is willing to throw down for it, it probably is not an option. Camtasia is a bit cheaper and will work 100% better then Windows Encoder.

Just to let you know I wasn't trying to be snarky or anything was just interested in what you were using for your screen caps.

Matthew East 9:15 AM  

Yeah, I just saw that...haha.

I will see if I can make Camtasia happen...our station in Raleigh uses it for some stuff already.

Burgertime 9:18 AM  

Yea Camtasia is pretty easy to use too. Just click, record, and then edit after. It has some tools you would probably love, or at least the end user would love since you can increase your mouse pointer, size, and even use arrows(OK now I am being snarky)!

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