Fresh Batch of Arctic Air...

>> Friday, December 05, 2008

Above is today's edition of the Carolina weather video...see it for some of the graphics for this weekend's clipper and the big storm system next week.

I still think some flakes could fly later tomorrow into tomorrow evening....especially up toward the Triad and Triangle zones. It does not look like anything significant, but fun to watch if you are lucky enough to see some flakes.

Things stay cold around here for a while...lots of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

A lot of questions remain with our big system next week. A lot of the uncertainty with how things will evolve up at 500mb. The 0z and the 6z run of the GFS handled that energy in a different fashion, and thus different weather results around here next Thursday. The European model is even slower, but that is often a bias in the European model....holding upper level energy back too long in the southwest US.

See the video.....easier to show you than type to you what the differences were for us on the 0z versus the 6z GFS.


Anonymous 3:43 PM  

hey matthew,

wow, just looking at the new european run and it seems like that run has really taken a turn towards the colder, snowier side of things....any thoughts on this?

Matthew East 6:34 PM  

It seems they Euro and the GFS is trying to lock in on a scenario, or at least a general idea, for next week. If that 500mb low closes off and tracks like the 0z, 12z, and 18z GFS shows, then that would be favorable for some Carolina snow.

Note the Euro and GFS are still way apart in terms of timing, but in terms of the forecast idea, they are in better agreement.

Tyler Legg 10:03 PM  

Hey Matthew, looked at the MOS data wrong. Those 29 degree readings around the 11th were mid morning temps. I guess the anticipation and major hype produced by the models over the past few days were messing with my head. Thanks, and pray to the Lord we will see some snow this Winter. He knows were due too!!

Anonymous 10:28 PM  

hey matthew,

i looked at bot runs of the european glb on the first run (00Z) appeared to be some sort of ice event for the region....the second (012z) looked more like a snowstorm. it appears the second develops a much deeper trough than the first. i couldnt get the gfs models to load, so i havent looked at them question is, do you see this shaping up to being possibly a major ice storm instead of a snow storm...just wondering what your thoughts are on this....really not looking for ice lol thanks

Anonymous 11:18 PM  

If you take in the GFS' se bias, we could have a very nice snowstorm on our hands. of course, living in Gaston Co., I'm always nervous when I have to depend on moisture from the atlantic!

Matthew East 7:47 AM problem, I get my eyes crossed sometimes too.

Our Thursday potential is still on the modeling this morning, just suppressed a bit to the southeast on the GFS and again, WAY slower on the Euro. If you want to look at something pretty, take a peek at the 0z global Canadian run today at 144 hours.

As far as precip type, to me this looks like either rain, snow, or nothing Thursday to me. I just am not feeling ice potential at the present time. But, lots can and will change.

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