Two systems for the Carolinas...

>> Friday, January 07, 2011

Please give today's edition of the video a watch...I will step you through both today's system and the system early next week.

Two systems in the offing. One is later today and tonight....the other is the much talked about system for early next week.

First off, we basically have a strong clipper that is dropping into the region. I have just seen the 12z NAM, and it is sticking to the idea of painting a very narrow stripe of accumulating snow across the region. This will likely be a strip of accumulating snow only about 50-100 miles across, and it will run in a west to east fashion. Honestly, anywhere from the Hwy 74 corridor to the I-40 is fair game to have this strip set up over you, but right now I would lean more toward the general area around Hwy 64. That is subject to change though. Wherever that strip does set up, a general 1-2" snow could occur. However, if the instability and forcing that the NAM shows does indeed materialize, a few very localized spots might see 3" or 4".

But I can't stress this enough...this will be a narrow and, and many will not see any accumulation at all. The best chance of accumulating snow will be from very late this afternoon through this evening.

System next week....

I don't really have any changes here. Some of the modeling on some runs has backed off a bit on the total precip amounts as the system moves into the Carolinas. That could indeed be the case, but overall I haven't seen a whole lot to lean me away from the idea that this looks like a widespread, high-impact type winter storm for a lot of areas from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas.

A little later today, I will post a couple of maps showing the general precip type areas I am going with as of now. Generally speaking, this looks like mainly snow for AR, north MS and AL, TN, north GA, northwestern SC, and much of NC from roughly the I-85 corridor north and west. South and east of that line, there will be an icy mix, and there could be a significant ice event in parts of central MS, AL, GA, and SC.

Again, check back a little later today and I will post some precip type maps.....


Anonymous 6:29 AM  

The video's not working at the moment, Matt. Maybe it's a bug. I'll keep trying...

Anonymous 6:32 AM  

Matt, the video is not working for me either. Thanks for all your input and time!

Anonymous 6:47 AM  

Hey Matthew looking at the NAM and GFS they both show some weak instability around that area of possible convective snow banding and I expect that with any REAL heavy snow rates they may even be some thundersnow in those areas outlined IF things play out like so, but these are just my thoughts. But do you think thats possible aswell?
Also to note the GFS and NAM both show LI index between +1-+2 thats pretty low for a winter weather event BUT in the past with these strong clippers I have seen thundersnow.


Matthew East 7:43 AM  

Video working for you guys now?

Yes, modeling pretty impressive...will likely be a very narrow strip that picks up some good snow.

Matthew East 7:43 AM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jeremy 9:19 AM  

Yep I can see the video just fine.

Anonymous 9:55 AM  

Thanks Matt, help us get these QPF numbers up. Atlanta doesn't get more snow than us right? I pulling the Climatology card. Usually what they get, we get plus 40-50% more. It's odd that the qpf for a gulf low just stops in SC. Strange.


wgbjr 10:37 AM  

Brad, Matt said in the video not to be concerned about the QPF (near the end of the video).

Atlanta's forecast does have accumulating snow.

Shannon 11:41 AM  

Matt, I've heard folks referencing the upcoming storm to January 88. I do not remember this storm; however, I do remember the storm we had on January 21/22 1987...we received 17 inches in Catawba County. How does our upcoming storm compare to the one in January of 87? Are the setups similar?

Matthew East 3:03 PM  

Brad....the reason is the southern branch feature weakening as it moves into the region. That will undoubtedly happen, it us a matter of how quickly it weakens.

Hi Shannon.....the 1987 system was a phased, full latitude trough. Kind of a different setup overall from this one.

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