Here we go...

>> Thursday, January 06, 2011

Please take time to look at today's video....a graphic is worth a thousand words. I take a long look at the system early next week....

Parts of the region did see a little light snow very early this morning, but that system is exiting stage right. The weather overall through Saturday will be pretty quiet. A few NW flow disturbances will move in and bring the mountains some snow, but aside from a stray flake or two in the Piedmont, not a big deal.

Potential winter storm...

As I have been discussing, early next week is when the potential big-ticket item is. A big upper low, currently in the Pacific off the south California coast, will eject eastward as we head into the weekend and likely be located over the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday. From there, it will likely weaken a bit as it lifts into the upper Southeast or mid-Atlantic.

All indicators (modeling) are pointing to the possibility of a significant winter storm for parts of northern MS, northern AL, Tennessee, northern GA, northern SC, much of NC up into Virginia and maybe southern New England. But please hear this.....this is still very much in the 'potential' category.

Now, there are some differences in the modeling, but overall, fairly remarkable agreement in the end result. (By the way, please pay no attention to the QPF numbers on modeling at this point).

While there will inevitably be some adjustments on the modeling in coming runs, I don't think we will see wild, huge run-to-run swings like we saw leading up to the Christmas system. We are not 'threading the needle' with the phasing of branches here. It really all comes down to the timing and track of the upper level low currently in the eastern Pacific.

People always ask, and it is my practice to not mention accumulation potential until at least with 48 hours of an event. So, don't ask me for numbers just yet. :-)

I will say this though....this does have the potential to be a significant winter storm for a lot of places in the region. There will likely be an area of significant snow accumulation, and just to the south of that, and area of significant icing is possible before you get into the all-rain zone.

Cold air...

Don't let this get lost in the shuffle. It looks like a big blast of cold air will arrive behind the system by the middle part of next week. This might wind up being the coldest air we have seen thus far this cold weather season.

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wgbjr 8:20 AM  

Interesting video, thanks Matthew. Looks like this potential snow may stick around for a little while if the storm does end up happening. Any early prediction for low temps after the system?

Matthew East 8:36 AM  

At least teens.....maybe some single digits, but I wouldn't go that far yet.

Anonymous 9:24 AM  

Thanks for the video. You mentioned a secondary LOW development potential with this storm, didn't the 2004 storm do that unexpectedly? I think that raised the amounts there as well. Thanks.


Anonymous 9:35 AM  

Matt, what are the odds for snow in eastern North Carolina?

Matthew East 10:00 AM  

Brandon....that depends on whether the system cuts up the coast or scoot out to see. Yet to be determined.

Brad...looks like the low kind of jumped / redeveloped off the GA/SC coast between 9z and 15z that day.

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