A few systems in the offing...

>> Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Take a look at the video...I discuss the systems one by one.

Short of time due to work responsibilities this morning, but a few notes. First, the system tonight will bring the chance of some light snow and light rain to the region....mainly rain south of I-85 in SC. This is one of those deals where precip type could be tied directly to precip rates....heavier the precip, more likely to have snow.

The key word for tonight is light. I imagine some areas could see a dusting around the Piedmont, but this does not look like a big deal. Now, NE Georgia and SW NC could do better on that front, but I just don't see a big event out of this for the Piedmont.

Next system could bring a few flakes Thursday night into Friday night. But this one looks pretty light as well.

I am still most interested in the system early next week. I think the GFS is completely clueless as of now. My idea on this is similar to the Canadian and Euro solutions...probably a less extreme version of the Canadian...something similar to the Euro.

I still lean more with a miller a type solution in the later Sunday into Monday time frame. There could wind up being some significant snow somewhere across the region. I am not ready to commit to anything yet, but I am slowly getting slightly more confident.


Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 11:00 AM  

12Z NAM and 12Z GFS both seem more bullish on precip amounts for tonight's event. We'll see...

Chris Enloe 11:34 AM  

@Jonathon - Look at the radar, it's not bullish.

Greg 11:38 AM  

Looks like a decent slug of precip moving through TN...wonder if that is the precip that (if it makes it over the MTNS) would bring us the precip whether liquid or frozen. Also noticed temps are held back into the 30s still (37 at airport - car said 40 in Ballantyne).

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 12:09 PM  

@Chris - The bullish nature is for tonight, not during the day. There's not supposed to be much of anything falling right now.

Chris Enloe 12:53 PM  

@Jonathon - I wasn't pointing out the verga over us now, I was trying to point out the moderate - heavy precipitation in Tennessee right now.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 1:00 PM  

@ Chris - I guess I just misunderstood your comment then, or vice versa. I was trying to imply that the noon models were predicting more QPF than originally forecasted. I would think the radar returns in TN would also lend credence to this idea. Thus, maybe we'll have a little surprise in the morning. WWAs are out for mountain counties. HWO for snowfall up to an inch for foothill counties, at the moment.

Chris Enloe 1:12 PM  

@Jonathon - NWS is probably right. I-40 corridor is likely to have an inch or a little more.

Anonymous 4:10 PM  

I think we're going to need afternoon updates everyday for this one (Monday/Tuesday). Me likes our chances for a good ole I85 special. My concern though is surface temps.


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