Lots of uncertainty ahead. . .

>> Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Here is today's video....take a look. I discuss the various systems to impact the region in the days ahead...

Tons of uncertainty in the specifics of our forecast over the next two weeks. The overall ideas remain unchanged....cold, and the potential for storm systems from time to time.

The first system to roll through will be late tomorrow night into early Thursday AM. I still think that one could wring out a few snowflakes across the region, but moisture still looks very limited overall this far north.

The next system arrives Friday. This is a strong clipper, and again, I still think this has the chance to produce a little snow even to areas east of the mountains. Not so much for the CLT area....but more toward the Triangle. Please see the video for a little more on this system.

Finally, the models all continue to struggle mightily with the specifics of our system early next week. The Euro and Canadian are on the fast side of the guidance in bringing precip in later Sunday. The GFS is much, much slower.

At this point, I am very cautiously leaning toward the quicker scenario, similar to the Euro. If that were to be the case, and precip later Sunday or Sunday night would probably be in the form of snow for most NC areas. In time, this might evolve into a wintry mix scenario Monday, or a main coastal low could take over in time, indicating more of a snow type of deal. Or, it could be like the GFS, which is MUCH slower....bringing snow in Tuesday!

So, lots of uncertainty, but the pattern remains ripe with potential fun and games.


Anonymous 6:21 AM  

Hey Matthew, how do you forecast temperatures? What charts do you use? Strictly 850? or what?

Matthew East 6:40 AM  

A combination of surface charts, 850 charts, MOS data, extracted 2-meter temps, and gut feeling!

Anonymous 7:37 AM  

Matthew hey Nic here, I know you probably dont focus (or my may Im not sure) on the 10mb or Stratosphere layer. but lately I have been looking into it a lot and I know when the AO goes negative that would mean stratospheric warming and colder temps for us here in the lower 48 and the thickness of the Stratosphere expands and would decrease the thickness in the troposphere and cools leading to cold air out breaks is that about right cause thats how I understand it?

thank you- Nic

Matthew East 8:10 AM  

Nic....that is something that I have looked at from time to time, but I don't have a great feel for. One general concept is when you look at stratospheric warming (10mb) at the pole, normally it is a signal for colder air plunging into the lower latitudes.

Anonymous 8:55 AM  

Thank you Matthew that is pretty much the concept I was thinking and understood from another meteorologist, and I too look at it from time to time to see it the lower latitudes can expect a cold air outbreak mainly during the winter months

Thanks again- Nic

Anonymous 10:22 AM  

wow...tomm night looks really interesting for sure. could be a little unexpected hit.

Anonymous 2:10 PM  

things starting to look very suspicious for thursday...and next week could be crazy!

  © Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP