Thursday late afternoon...

>> Thursday, January 06, 2011

After reviewing the latest data through the day, including the entire 12z suite of guidance as well as the 18z NAM, I have seen nothing at all to change the overall concept I have had out there. The bottom line is this....the potential is there for a significant winter storm all of the way from the Red River Valley early Sunday to Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern and even central Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee, north Georgia, much of North Carolina, and northern and central South Carolina.

I am growing more and more concerned with the ice potential for areas in central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and into central parts of South Carolina. The ingredients are there for a big ice storm in at least parts of those areas. Winds will remain out of the northeast through the duration of the event. Those winds will continue to advect in cold, shallow arctic air. Hopefully for those areas near this zone, either periods of snow or sleet will help to cut down on freezing rain amounts....because if all of the precip were to fall in those areas as freezing rain.....yikes.

North of the icing area is the mainly and all snow area. Right now, I would say that includes Arkansas, the Tennessee Valleys of north Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee, northern Georgia, the Upstate of South Carolina, and much of North Carolina once north and west of the coastal plain. Significant accumulations of snow are quite possible.

The bottom line is all of the players remain on the field for a big-ticket Deep South and Southeast winter storm Sunday into Monday night and Tuesday morning. I will continue to fine-tune the forecast as we go forward.

Keep in mind that it will be quite cold following the system. Many areas from north Georgia into the Carolinas might not see any significant period of time above freezing until Friday afternoon.

Now, please keep in mind that we are talking about a southern branch upper level low that is still sitting the Pacific lots can change. But as of now, I have not seen anything to cause me to think this is trending away from being a big winter storm in a lot of places.

But, this is all still in the potential category......when I feel confident in near certainties, I will say so and put out accumulation ideas....usually within 48 hours of an event.


Anonymous 4:58 PM  

Thanks for keeping us informed Matt. Quick do the surface temperatures look during the event? If most moisture falls during the day Monday than that will be crucial. Does it look like they'll stay below freezing or is the temp going to be lowered by the precip? I'm hoping the temp doesn't get above 30. Thanks.


Anonymous 5:13 PM  

@Brad, they start at 26 in CLT. Max is 29, fall back down to 27.

Anonymous 6:40 PM  

nws comp to 1988 poss 1ft acc

Matthew East 7:46 PM  

Don't think SFC temps will be an issue for CLT metro. Question is how much QPF...

Anonymous 5:59 AM  

Can you post a link to Euro prcip output up matthew? i can't find one to save my life! Thanks

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