Saturday evening...

>> Saturday, January 08, 2011

Some quick thoughts this evening....

How about the Saints/ Seahawks game?

Some discrepancies continues with the modeling regarding precip amounts. But, I am going to lay out a few very preliminary accumulation ideas. Please be aware that significant adjustments might need to be made as we approach the event.

For the I-85 corridor from the Upstate of SC all of the way up to the junction with I-77. Snow should begin by Monday morning, and the atmosphere should support all snow for this area until early afternoon at the earliest. After that, the temps aloft warm a bit, and there would be a switch over to sleet and mainly freezing rain. For the GSP area, I will go 3-5" of snow with a glazing of ice after that. For CLT, I will go 2-4," then the glazing. Western areas of the CLT metro could be more toward the 3-5" area.

The Columbia area is a very tough call. There will be a period of snow, but the warming aloft will be quicker down in that area, and a transition to sleet and freezing rain will then occur. The freezing rain potential is much more significant in this area, and at least a quarter inch of ice is quite possible....maybe more.

For the I-40 corridor from GSO to RDU....very very tricky. Precip amounts are a huge question mark. I will go with 2-4" of snow, and then a tenth to maybe a quarter inch of ice in some areas.

Back to the west, this looks like a good snow event for north Mississippi, especially along and north of Hwy 82, and in Alabama north of I-20. Tennessee also looks to see a good snow as well, especially along and south of I-40. I would think a general 3-6" type of snow in many of those areas, and that should carry over into northern Georgia as well. Many spots in the Tennessee Valley area could verify toward the higher end of (or even exceed) that range. I am still quite concerned about the ice potential in central MS, AL, and GA, but precip amounts are a question mark as some modeling is shifting the best precip up into the Tennessee Valley.

Some general ideas as I see it this evening. Be aware some fairly significant adjustments are always possible.

We will see how things look as Sunday unfolds. Keep an eye on the RUC modeling over the next 24 hours, and as we get deeper into Sunday, it becomes increasingly NOWCASTing time....meaning watching radar trends and surface obs instead of models.


Tom 9:12 PM  

Nice summary, given the current model output. Thanks, Matt...

aka Solak

Bill 9:45 PM  

Credit where credit is due ...

You first mentioned this storm on 12/30, and have been all over it since then. Usually stuff that far out is taken with a gigantic grain of salt. The models like to show big whoppers 178 hrs+ out that get toned down, changed, or don't materialize at all. But there was something about this one that you recognized and locked on to very early on as being a real possibility (you said you had a 'keen interest' in it way back on 12/31).

Nice going on this, Matt. Even if something goes wrong at the last minute, the fact that we're seeing what we're seeing now is a real testament to your long range radar :)

Matthew East 10:08 PM  

Thanks, guys. Wow, very nice of you to say those things, Bill. I really appreciate it...

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