Merry Christmas

>> Saturday, December 25, 2010

Posting this just after midnight on Christmas morning.....WAY past my bedtime! But I wanted to put out a few quick thoughts.

The modeling has, as a whole, gotten quicker with the phasing of the two pieces of energy I have been discussing here all week. This is resulting in a stronger system with heavier precip thrown back into much of the region.

I have not had nearly the time to deeply analyze things as I would normally have, but there general idea here is for precip to spread in from west to east as the day unfolds. Initially in some spots, it could be a rain and snow mix, but snow will take over in time.

It now looks like much of the region....mountains, foothills, Piedmont over to I-95 will see at least a good period of moderate snow later Christmas into the evening hours with some heavy snow possible at times.

As the coastal low really begins to crank overnight into Sunday morning, some good snow rates are possible, especially in the eastern half of the Carolinas. And I still think this will at least end as some snow for the coast.

I am not going to draw up a map, but I would just put out a general 2-5" snow for much of the region (Carolinas). I know that is a broad range, but this is a changeable situation, instead of trying to get overly cute with it, I will go with that for now. Some areas will certainly be nearer the 2, but some could definitely be near (or possibly exceeding) the 5, especially in the deformation band as the coastal low cranks. In fact, odds seem to be that there will wind up being a strip of 4-8" somewhere.

We will see if any further westward trending commences. If so, that would certainly aid further in the Piedmont snow totals.

I will be spending time with my family as Christmas unfolds, so you probably won't hear much from me until late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Everyone enjoy the idea of waking up on a Christmas morning with the opportunity for some snow. For snow fans, I hope it works out for you. Tricky, tricky system, but the potential is there.

Merry Christmas, and God bless....


Tom 12:38 AM  

Merry Christmas to you and yours, Matthew.
Tom, aka Solak

Anonymous 2:55 PM  

Merry Christmas to you also. I know this has been an exceptionally difficult one to forecast, but thanks bunch for doing such a great job on it! I suppose that's what makes meteorology so exciting... sometimes just endless possibilities of predicting the dynamics of the atmosphere. Hope the forecast is right and can't wait to see 6-8 inches on the ground by noontime tomorrow (Sunday) in Charlotte.

God bless,

DoubleJ 5:55 PM  

Merry Christmas Matthew thank you very much.

Jeremy 10:55 PM  

Merry Christmas yall! 4" on the ground and still dumping snow here in Rockingham County! Hopefully Charlotte will get in on this. Hope Christmas was good for everyone.

Anonymous 11:00 PM  

Merry Christmas Matthew, hope it was well for you and your family. We have 5-6 inches on the ground in the outlying areas of Winston-Salem, and still coming down at a pretty good clip. Thanks for all the info you provided us with, and hope everyone else gets in on the action as well.

Matthew East 4:53 AM  

Thanks for the reports. We did have a nice Christmas...I hope you all did as well.

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