Late Afternoon Update

Just a few quick words here. Most modeling continues to gradually step toward the European solution, which came in with another huge snowstorm with its most recent 12z run. So, the idea I continue to go with is a less extreme version of the Euro model.

It looks like this low will likely bomb out pretty rapidly as it begins to move from the Gulf up near or along the Atlantic coast. This will likely be one of the more impressive coastal lows we have seen in a while.

Here is the trick though....there could very well be a sharp western cutoff to the heavy snow. I can fully envision a scenario where Columbia and Raleigh get significantly more snow than GSP, Charlotte, and Greensboro. But, if this really turns into a monster storm, there would likely be some significant orographic enhancement in the western Carolinas (orographic and due to lee side trough development).

So, all in all, I am staying the course, and I find it encouraging that the 12z modeling has trended even closer to the Euro...while the Euro holds its course. But again, I think the way to go at the moment is with a less-extreme version of the Euro....but I am fully aware that the Euro could very well verify.

Be aware that if this system really cranks, travel could become very difficult if not impossible around portions of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic by Saturday night and Sunday.

**Looks like the 18z GFS continues to look even more like the Euro solution, albeit quicker and not quite as intense. But the trending continues....**