Christmas week...and a Christmas storm system

>> Monday, December 20, 2010

Below is today's edition of the video....give it a look....



A couple of items before I get into what everybody wants to hear about....the Christmas storm possibilities.

A total lunar eclipse will occur during the overnight hours tonight.....greatest eclipse will be at 3:16am. Astronomically, North America is in about as good a position as we could be in to see the eclipse. In the Carolinas though, we will have some clouds rolling in, but hopefully enough breaks to allow it to be seen if you so choose.

This is Christmas week obviously, and the weather will remain pretty quiet for our region through Thursday. Most highs will be in the 40s with lows mainly in the 20s.

A weak system will move through tomorrow, but it will only being clouds to the Piedmont....maybe a little light rain in the mountains.

Christmas system...

Lots of people already buzzing about the potential for a storm system Friday into Saturday. The system definitely has piqued my interest.

Here is the disclaimer. Here on the blog, I kind of pull back the curtain and just lay out a lot of the behind the scenes stuff. I like to discuss possibilities with you and let you know some of the things I am looking at.

The operational GFS is the farthest north of all of the modeling. Even the GFS's own ensembles are farther south than the operational run. Taken verbatim, the operational GFS shows a little light snow north of I-40 as the system arrives by Friday night, but then a mainly rain event in our region.

All of the others models I can get my hands on this morning show a farther south and stronger solution. If you were to give me a blank map and a pencil, I could not draw up a better setup for Southeast snow than what the 0z European model shows. It was a thing of beauty for snow fans. Its ensembles were largely in agreement, and the Euro not only brought snow Christmas Day to the Carolinas, but all of the way up I-95 into the Northeast.

The UKMET and Canadian all also indicate at least some snow being involved at some point in the system for much of the interior Carolinas.

Hear this....the system is 5 days away, and there are two main things to watch with this system.

1. The latitude it takes west to east across the US.

2. The phasing between two different streams.

When this phasing occurs, and how much phasing occurs it at all, will play a huge role in the track of this system. It is within the realm of possibility that this system winds up trending north with time. There is also the chance of very little phasing and a weak system sliding out to sea.

Way too early for any confidence, but it sure is fun to watch.....

18 comments:

Anonymous 6:12 AM  

Great job on going into detail on out POSSIBLE Christmas storm Matthew really good job and Im looking forward to more of your in depth blogs as Christmas eve and Day draws closer, by the way too bad this aint 24-48 hrs out or we would most likely be looking at a snow storm so lets Hope so.

-Nic

Chris Enloe 6:48 AM  

Yeah, we shouldn't get excited until Wednesday Morning, ONLY if this trend runs in every model run.

Anonymous 7:09 AM  

Okay Mat, Will you explain the 50/50 Low I know its 50 lat 50 lon. but is that a good thing or bad thing for us? and why? Thanks

Matthew East 7:28 AM  

Thanks....

Yep, too early for anybody to make snow plans!

Here is a write-up about the 50/50 low..
http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/secs/5050/50-50.htm

wgbjr 7:37 AM  

This will be interesting to track. A white Christmas has not occurred in my lifetime that I recollect. We had a light dusting one year (1998-99 maybe?), but nothing substantial.

Not getting my hopes up though. This one could be a true heart breaker for snow fans.

Anonymous 9:00 AM  

Thanks Matt for taking us "behind the curtain"; that's why I'm a regular visitor to the blog. I love getting the thoughts behind the models, not just what the models say verbatim. What is the likely trend? Why have some models changed, what's good for us on the models, what's bad? Good educational stuff.

This is total surprise though as I thought most of the models showed the LOW immediately over us and the NWS is calling for all rain with temps in the 50s Friday. But my understanding is all but the GFS show some type of snow pattern for the mid-carolinas? Wow. Ok, I'm glued. Please keep us updated Matt! Thanks again.

Brad

Anonymous 10:12 AM  

Matt, you are truly a professional. Its nice to know a meteorologist who uses all models and doesn't rely on one. Hopefully we can get some snow in eastern NC as well.
~Brandon

wgbjr 10:24 AM  

The NWS mentions the possibilities in their discussion, but are waiting for the operational GFS to get on-board before they start changing the forecast.

Anonymous 11:24 AM  

12z GFS has shifted a little southward bringing snow shield into northern NC. Let the southward trend begin...and stay!
~brandon

Chris Enloe 1:11 PM  

Canadian is looking pretty!

DoubleJ 1:14 PM  

Awesome Matt, thanks for your hard work on this. I can't wait to see how it unfolds.

Anonymous 1:32 PM  

just glanced at the ggem and is that not just a little too far off shore for snow in the fthills?

Anonymous 3:55 PM  

Anybody know what the 12Z European model run looks like?

Chris Enloe 4:16 PM  

12z European is even better than 0z! XD

Anonymous 4:38 PM  

HAVE YOU SEEN THE EXTRACTED GFS TEMPS AT THE END OF THE RUN???!!!???!!!

Chris Enloe 5:20 PM  

Yeah, I saw. Euro is verifying. Below zero highs? With a 4 day snow storm at the same time? We can call NC the new Europe lol

Anonymous 8:08 PM  

Matt, if the storm takes the southern track like the ECMWF or CMC is showing, will Eastern NC also recieve snow?

Anonymous 8:52 PM  

How are yall seeing the future highs? How do you read that on the video or are you looking at something else?

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