Powerhouse system moving in...

>> Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Below is today's edition of the video...

The region will continue to see periods of rain today as a major storm system crawls into the area. The cool conditions we had in place yesterday will give way to a much milder airmass in time today, and most of the Piedmont will be well up into the 60s by later this afternoon. Some spots could even hit 70 degrees or so.

As the airmass gets more unstable, thunderstorms enter the forecast equation. While a few storms could be involved late this afternoon, I think tonight is the main time-frame for storms. This is a classic high shear/ low instability setup, and similar setups in the past have resulted in severe weather. We will have to be vigilant in watching for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes tonight.

This is another case where the possibility exists over severe weather while the bulk of the community is sleeping. Every home should have a NOAA weather radio. If and when severe weather develops, we will be on the air covering it for you, but we can't wake you up through the TV sets. There is a chance this winds up being a non-event, but have a way of hearing watches and warnings in the event they are required.

Quiet and chilly weather resumes tomorrow through the weekend. A 'clipper' system will roll through Sunday and bring some clouds. However, the moisture still looks quite limited, and once again I have left precip out of the weekend forecast. Most high and low temps on a daily basis will be a little below average.

Next week...

Model madness continues for next week, and I still think there is the possibility of a storm system for the Deep South and/or Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I think the GFS is unusable for the time being (at least as of the 0z run today)....it over-amplifies things early next week over the eastern US and really crushes the disturbance that would create the storm system. The Canadian and European models both still have the system, and I think they are more correct. But time will tell....


Anonymous 6:55 AM  

Do you think there's any chance of wintry precip this weekend?

Anonymous 8:37 AM  

Saw some mention of rain/snow sunday night this morning from noaa.

Anonymous 9:04 AM  

Matt, what does this mean for eastern NC?

Matthew East 9:09 AM  

I doubt much happens wintry this weekend outside of the mountains... But I will tell you I haven't spent a ton of time on that part of the forecast due to the current system moving in.

Anonymous 12:37 PM  

The 12z models are nothing to get enthusiastic about either. Looks like all modeling tries to keep us dry and snowless. Lets hope the models jumb back on board.

Gastonwxman 7:26 PM  

This is exactly what GFS was doing this past winter by suppressing systems too far south due to it advertising too much cold air filtering into the East. I'm sure there'll be a northward trend with time, but until we get past this rainy/stormy event, the models are going to have a hard time in terms of the forecasting that developing storm system and the cold air out ahead of it.

Anonymous 9:49 PM  

Yeah, and the 18z run is a little more wet and less suppressed. Maybe these models will get it together.

Tyler Legg 10:50 PM  

0z is running right now... Keep your fingers crossed!

Anonymous 12:02 AM  

0z gives the system more moisture but shoves it right down into the Gulf. I really think this is the classical case of the GFS suppressing it to far south and a north trend will take place in later runs.

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