Dynamic storm system on the way. . .

>> Monday, November 29, 2010

After some fairly chilly, docile weather Saturday and Sunday, the weather is about to get more active around here. Today, clouds will be on the increase for the Charlotte and Triad zones on up into the mountains, and some drizzle could develop in time. Highs today will largely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The core of our next system will swing through later tomorrow and exit very early Wednesday. Rain will be a possibility from time to time tomorrow, with the heaviest rain during the day being the farther west you head....especially in the mountains and foothills. With time, the band of heavier rain will pivot eastward through the rest of the area. This will occur mainly Tuesday night. at that point, a few storms could be involved as well. This is a high shear/ low instability set up, and a few severe storms can't be ruled out, especially as you get closer to I-95.

Flooding will likely be an issue for the mountains and foothills. I fully anticipate some 3-5" rain amounts in those areas. For the I-85 corridor, this is looking like a 1-2" type rain event.

Later this week...

A fresh push of cold air will arrive later Wednesday, and highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s in some Piedmont spots Thursday into the weekend.

A couple of 'clipper' type systems will move through late this week and then again Sunday. At this point, moisture looks pretty limited, so I don't have any precip chances in the forecast with those.

System next week...

It sure looks like another system will roll through the region Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This is the one that has been hinted at by the modeling for a while now. That one definitely bears watching for the potential for at least some wintry weather somewhere around the region as a whole. WAY too soon for any type of details....but it has my interest.


Anonymous 5:53 AM  

Matthew the EC model looks BEAUTIFUL with that snowy looking set up I can only hope the GFS would join in.


Matthew East 6:25 AM  

Nic....would be great. But I would not count on ANY model being consistent run to run for the next few days...

Anonymous 8:18 AM  

The GFS has had the low farther south but keeps moving it back and forth, and at one point had it in the Gulf like the storms last January. Maybe it will follow the European. Matt, do you think that if the farther south scenario unfolds, could Eastern North Carolina also receive snow?

Matthew East 9:20 AM  

Brandon....sure. It is all about track, which I obviously have no confidence in right now.

Anonymous 9:35 AM  

Well Matt, I'm trying not to play the snow game this year but you have to try to pull me in don't ya? Just when I thought I'd never look at a GFS map (grrr!!) again, I get hooked. Thanks alot Matt!!:)

I can't say I'm very excited yet though as I can't remember a snow storm in December for Charlotte since I don't know when (ice yes, snow no). I seriously doubt this pans out. However Matt, what has your interest peaked so early? PNA, NAO, NBA, NFL, etc???? Just curious. Thanks!


Anonymous 9:39 AM  

I trust the ECMWF much more than the GFS. Hopefully the arctic air can push in but not enough to push the storm too far south. Pattern is looking conductive though!

DoubleJ 12:40 PM  

Nobody cares about this big rain maker tomorrow, but all about next week. Nothing wrong with it I guess, I just think its funny.

Anonymous 12:43 PM  


Any chance that tomorrow could be like last weeks storms? Those were some pretty powerful storm. I don't understand why no one seems concered about it. I kind of am.

Thanks for all you do!!

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 2:10 PM  

I think we care about what happens tomorrow, but we're much more interested in what might happen next week.

We're all snow geese! Living in the South makes us long for that beautiful white stuff that all those up North get all the time. I don't think I'll ever grow out of the excitement of waiting for the next winter storm.

By the way, I visited SW Michigan for Thanksgiving week, and had lots of lake-effect snow forecasted for the area, but it never materialized. I saw a few flakes, but nothing ever on the ground.

Tyler Legg 2:58 PM  

Here's a really interesting read from Allan Huffman (met up in Raleigh). Read with caution. May cause some to become overly excited. :)


Gastonwxman 5:08 PM  

You have to admit that the much earlier run of the 0z GFS (a week ago I think) and the current 0z Euro look eerily similar. The GFS run had a low traveling along the Gulf Coast and then up the East Coast. Now this current 0z Euro run shows that same solution but at a much closer time. Indeed that it's a long way out there, but it all falls in line with a few people like myself figured would be possible once we got into December.

Anonymous 5:33 PM  

As blocking shifts southwest next week there is a better chance of the ECMWF verifying. Question is, when does the low interract with the jet stream?

Anonymous 6:34 PM  

Accuweather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is catching onto the idea of a storm.


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