Wet Tuesday...

>> Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look....

The simple portion of the forecast is rain chances. We will see rain at times today, tonight, and into tomorrow. The more complicated part of the forecast is temperatures. A cold air damming event will unfold for us, and that will create a wide range in temps around the state this afternoon and tonight. By late afternoon, we could see the Virginia border counties in the lower 40s while portions of the southern Piedmont are in the 60s.

The wedge will erode away late tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches, and that is when there will be the opportunity for a few thunderstorms. While I don't think we will have a big problem with severe weather, one or two strong to severe storms can't be ruled out late tonight and tomorrow morning.

The rain will taper off as we head later into tomorrow afternoon. By the time all is said and done, some spots could have seen over two or three inches of rain, so some flooding issues are possible. Up in the mountains, a pretty good upslope snow event will unfold from tomorrow evening into Thursday.

It still looks like a cold front will drop in here Saturday and give us a chance of a little light rain. But at this point, it doesn't look like a big deal.

The models continue to flip and flop on how things unfold from Sunday onward. At this point, you just simply cannot take any one model solution and believe it. Overall, I think the period from Thursday through the 20th or so will average colder than normal...at times possibly much colder than normal. And there will be the potential for a few storm systems as well....but there is nothing yet concrete to hang our hats on.


Anonymous 3:29 PM  

Can you explain to me how the 12z GFS 36hr. graphic doesn't mean freezing precip? That blue line confuses me!

Anonymous 4:11 PM  

Matthew, the time is 4:10 p.m. Does it still look like a severe chance and has it grown or diminished any? If we see severe in the charlotte area and triad, what would the main threats be and the time frame?

Matthew East 4:39 PM  

Nathan....that chart you are looking at shows the temperature at 850mb at that exact time while showing the precip over the past 6 hours. Cold air is moving in from the northwest, so in this case, the precip is leaving as the cold air arrives. Does that make sense? If not, I can explain further.

Anon...in terms of severe weather here, it will all depend on the retreat of the wedge. There will be some chance of severe weather near that boundary, but where it sets up is tough to tell. So basically, I think there is some chance of severe weather, but not nearly as significant a chance as what is occurring over Alabama right now.

Anonymous 4:42 PM  

Thanks matthew. Is it if the wedge retreats earlier or later that wed see the better chance of severe? im not real big on what the "wedge" usually means other than one side COOOOOOOOOOOOOLDDDDD...walking to my car from school was no fun, or its very warm.

Matthew East 4:53 PM  

It is just how quickly that boundary retreats northward. The main window of opportunity for any severe weather is later tonight through around 9 or 10am tomorrow morning.

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