Monday morning...

>> Monday, January 05, 2009

***No new edition of the video today....I will not be in the weather office. New Carolina Weather Video will be posted bright and early tomorrow morning.***

It is a foggy start today as most people get back into a normal routine after the holidays.

I wanted to put up a quick post to talk about the events we have upcoming. It looks like a very healthy rain events will unfold for us over the next 3 days, and it will come in two phases. The brunt of the first phase looks to rill through later tonight into tomorrow morning. For the rest of the day tomorrow, some at least light rain will remain in the forecast, and then another batch of heavier rain will swing in later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

**I will note that the NAM is much colder than the GFS with our wedging scenario coming up. In fact, the 6z NAM brings temps all of the way down to just above freezing around the Triad (using the sounding data via BUFKIT...not the MOS data). In fact, it is an amazing temp gradient being shown on the NAM between the surface and 850mb. While surface temps are just above freezing Wed AM, 850mb temps are in excess of 10 degrees C. We should stay all rain, but you always have to watch for a little bit of a surprise with these types of events.**

Behind that system, a pretty good shot of chilly air will settle in for the second half of the week, and I expect some healthy upslope snows to unfold up in the mountains later this week as well.

Our next system will then roll through over the weekend, mainly later Saturday it appears. Right now, it looks like it will either be rain or nothing here in the Piedmont. Some showers might have to be dodged for the big Panthers game Saturday evening, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that yet. We will fine tune that forecast this week.

I know there are lots of snow-starved folks here in the Carolinas. I feel your pain....I am one of you! My advice is to hang in there and lets see what the rest of winter brings.

All along, I have thought mid-January held at least some promise for us, and I see nothing to change that opinion right now. So, let's see what can develop next week into the week after (January 11-20th or so). The overall pattern is looking fairly favorable for something to try and materialize. If we can't get anything then, we still have a large chuck of winter left.


junior weather man 3:41 PM  

How are you feeling about a good winter hit january 13th-15th??
i noticed jeff crum has that and you have january 11th-20th... could THIS be something to watch good?? reply back.
talk to you soon.

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