Severe weather chances...

>> Thursday, May 08, 2008

The overall setup still looks favorable for a severe weather threat this afternoon and tonight. Now, one caveat to this....for a significant severe weather threat, we probably will have to see a bit of sunshine, and temperatures will have to warm up to at least the upper 70s to lower 80s. At this point, I expect that will likely happen.

I expect scattered showers and storms to fire this afternoon, and any of those storms could be strong to severe. Initially this afternoon, the wind fields aloft will not be overly strong. However, they will strengthen with time as we head into evening.

Based on the parameters expected to be in place, all modes of severe weather look possible. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all appear possible this afternoon and tonight.

I expect scattered showers and storms this afternoon into early evening, and eventually later tonight a line of showers and storms will probably move through.

Keep in mind, this is dependent on enough instability getting in place to support severe weather. That will be something to keep an eye on this afternoon.

The 6z NAM takes the CAPE values in Charlotte to near 2000 j/kg this afternoon. That is probably overdone, but here are some values for Charlotte off of the 6z NAM valid at 8pm this evening.

CAPE: 1431
Helicity: 322
EHI: 2.88
SWEAT: 471
TT: 52


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