Evaluating Tomorrow....

>> Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Some impressive parameters are being forecast by modeling to be in place around here tomorrow afternoon and early evening. For those of you that are meteorologically inclined, here are some values for Charlotte based off of the 6z NAM valid at 4pm tomorrow afternoon:

CAPE: 1471
Helicity: 262
EHI: 2.41
BRN: 22.99
LI: -4.5
TT: 53
K Index: 35
SWEAT: 466

Those are some pretty impressive numbers. Looking at things, the only real component that is a bit lacking is the speed of the winds up in the atmosphere. There will be fairly strong, but not as much as in some classic severe weather outbreaks.

So, I expect scattered showers and storms to develop tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Some of the storms will probably become severe, and all modes of severe weather look possible...possibly tornadoes, wind, and hail. Then, a strong line of storms will probably move through overnight tomorrow night, and again, some storms could be severe.

So, severe weather is not at all a given, but I do think it is a strong possibility. If we see any sunshine tomorrow morning, then that will increase the chances for severe weather. As is always the case, the severe weather threat will depend on various small scale feature that will not be apparent until tomorrow. So we will continue to watch and evaluate.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the latest information. And, I will update the blog with my thoughts as I can and as it necessary.

I will also quickly point out that is still looks rather active for Mother's Day, but we will dive into that one after this first system passes.


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