Saturday morning...

>> Saturday, January 12, 2008

Model confusion continues in the outlook for next week.

In short, the 0z GFS suppressed our Wednesday-Thursday system too far south for us to see any significant precip. However, on the very next run, the 6z dumps heavy snow in western North Carolina Thursday.

For the storm next weekend, the 0z developed a monster low pressure area that brought us rain with some wrap-around snow potential behind the system. The system has essentially vanished from the 6z run.

On the 0z European, it is ill-defined with our mid-week system, bringing some precip in here toward the end od the work week. The 0z Canadian brings precip in here Thursday.

In short, who knows at this point? The upper level disturbance responsible for the Thursday system is entering western North America today, so I would imagine modeling will at least have some idea what is going on with the 0z runs tonight.

The 0z GFS was a bit of a kill-joy for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but the 6z obviously looked great for western N.C. But as you can't live and die by each run of each model. The bottom line is there is at least POTENTIAL for some type of wintry weather next week, and I will continue to try and hammer it out for you....


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