Severe clear...

>> Thursday, June 15, 2006

After lots of severe weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and then all of the issues with Alberto later Tuesday through Wednesday morning, we are enjoying calm weather today. I know those of us here in the weather office are welcoming the opportunity to catch our breath a little bit.

Very quiet weather around here for the next few days. We will enjoy fairly pleasant humidity values today and Friday, but dewpoints will be on the rise by the weekend, making it more unfomfortable with highs back in the lower 90s.

The GFS (one of the American computer models, linked on the right) wants to stall a weakening cold front out near our area mid-week next week, bringing us some shower and storm chances. Below is the surface image for 8pm Wednesday on the 12z GFS. Click on the image to enlarge it.

Some of the other medium-range computer model data does not bring that front in here. The deeper we get into June and July, the more skeptical I am about fronts actually making it in here. So, for the moment, I am just bringing down our mid-week highs next week into the upper 80s and mentioning more in the way of cloud cover.

As for the tropics, all is quiet. No organized activity out there to make note of; just a couple of weak tropical waves east of the Windward Islands. The Canadian model (which was the first model to pick up on the development of Alberto) is hinting that one of those waves could try to develop later this week or early next week and head up close to Bermuda.

It looks like that idea has some support from another couple of models, so we will watch that. But, even it that does occur, it should not affect the US.


Anonymous 7:50 PM  

Hey Matthew. I am curious why you said that fronts have a harder time making it here in July? What about our climatology makes that so? Thanks!

Matthew East 8:14 PM  

The deeper we get into the summer months, the harder it is to get cold fronts through our region. The reason is this...

As we get into July and August, the jet stream pulls farther and farther off to the north (in the Northern Hemisphere). The jet stream, or the upper level winds, are what drive and steer cold fronts. As we get deeper into the summer, and the primary storm track and jet stream continue their usual northward march, there is simply not much upper level energy to push fronts through here.

But don't worry, by later September and October, the jet stream begins to shift back to the south, ushering in cold fronts and gradually transitioning us from the warm, muggy weather of summer to the colder air of winter.

Does that answer your question? If not, feel free to let me know and I will try to do a better job...

Anonymous 8:24 PM  

That was a great explanation. Thanks!

Anonymous 2:34 PM  

ok.... way to late to do this comment....

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