Heat begins to take hold...

>> Friday, June 16, 2006

You can certainly tell we are getting deeper into summer. Now, you might say "summer doesn't officially begin until next week." While that is correct, us meteorologists always sort of consider "meteorological summer" to be the months of June, July, and August. So, in my mind, summer has already begun.

At any rate, it is feeling more and more like summer, and our weather forecast is looking more and more like summer. We are getting into that time of year where storm systems and cold front are rather hard to come by around the southeast. So, the weather over this part of the country will be basically dry and warm through the weekend and into early next work week.

We still have the forecast issue of whether or not a cold front will slip in here for the mid-week period next week. Here is a look at some of the model data. And by the way, my intentions are for this blog to many times contain a more technical discussion of the weather. Please feel free to ask questions if you have any at any time.

OK, here is the 0z run of the GFS for 8pm next Tuesday...

And here is the 06z GFS run for the same time...

Other computer model data keeps that front off to our north and northwest...such as the European model. Why? Well, the European is not as deep with an upper air trough over the northeastern US as the GFS is. Therefore, it does not drive that front as far south as the GFS does. Below is the European 500mb chart for 12z Tuesday (8am Tuesday) and the 500mb 6z GFS chart from the same time...

My forecast right now if sort of a compromise. I do increase the cloud cover Tuesday through Friday next week, but I still am not including any rain chanes in the forecast. I tend to lean more toward the European solution due to the fact that cold fronts are harder and harder some come by as we get into late June.

What about the tropics? Well, all is still quiet today. There are still a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic Ocean, but none of them are organizing themselves at this point. The Canadian model is still hinting at some development of one of those waves early next week, but that remains to be seen as of yet.

Putting the finishing touches on my live block here...then some ham and cheese sandwiches for lunch.


Anonymous 2:21 PM  

Hey Matthew. I know weather models have their own biases and quirks. Is there one model in particular that handles weather in the Southeast particularly well over the others? Thanks!

Matthew East 3:37 PM  

The short answer is no. And you are correct; each model does have its known biases. There are certain weather patterns that the European model typically handles very well, as is the case for the GFS, Canadian, NAM, and so forth. They each have their strong suits and weak points.

One thing I can tell you...almost EVERY model does not have the resolution to handle a "wedge" situation correctly around the Carolinas. Normally, the NAM and WRF will be the most reliable in "wedge" situations due to their higher resolution though. However, almost every time you can count on the wedge being stronger and colder than almost any model predicts.

I hope this helps...

Anonymous 5:32 PM  

Yes it does help, thanks!

Anonymous 2:32 PM  

ok how do i read this stuff i really wanted to be meterlogist at news 14.... i am a kid andi would like too>>>>>> and tell me what i can do right now to get ready i watch weather channel what next....

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