Sunshine returns today...Wet, cool weekend weather...

>> Thursday, February 02, 2012

Please see today's edition of the video. I spend a lot of time in there talking about the overall pattern, what has been 'wrong' with a normally overall fairly good set-up, and whether or not that might change later this month.

Sunshine will build into the region today with highs in the upper 60s and even lower 70s again in spots. Lows will return to the mid and upper 30s tonight.

Tomorrow will be nice, albeit a touch cooler with lots of upper 50s for highs.


No real changes to my thoughts for the weekend. Rain will likely arrive by Saturday afternoon, and then we will likely have rain at times Sunday and Monday. Temps will be on the cool side, especially Sunday and Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north.

Next week and beyond....

Tuesday and Wednesday look sunny and relatively cool. The GFS remains adamant that a Gulf of Mexico low pressure will form and track off the Carolina coast later next week. There is not much agreement with the GFS on the European or Canadian model.

Let's just say for argument's sake that the GFS is right. That low pressure (on the 0z run at least) takes a climatologically perfect track for snow in portions of the Southeast US. However, I just don't get the feeling that it will produce winter weather (if the system actually exists at all). The cold air (and it's really cold up around the Great Lakes at that time) just looks to stay a little too far north. I wouldn't rule out winter weather somewhere around here with it, I just think it's unlikely at this point.

Overall pattern....

Western North America ridge? Check. Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation? Check. Why no sustained eastern US cold? In short, the NAO remaining positive thus far. The Pacific flow is raging, and without any Atlantic blocking (-NAO), the cold shots are transient at best.

Will this change? See the video for much, much more on the longer range.


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