Fairly cool today....

>> Monday, February 06, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video....

Highs today will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most around the region under a partly sunny sky. As developing area of low pressure near south Florida will track off of the Carolina coast tonight and will likely spread some light rain into the coastal plain as it does so. However, I expect most of the piedmont to remain dry.

Our next system will then swing through Wednesday with a fairly limited chance of a brief shower.

Weekend potential...

For many, many runs over the past week, the GFS had been indicating the potential for a Gulf low to form and lift up off the Carolina coast this weekend. This occurred as a piece of upper level energy moving from Mexico into the Gulf at least partially phased with a piece of northern branch energy diving south into it.

The European model has never really been too excited about this, but some other foreign modeling has at times.

As of the 0z run today, the GFS is slower with the southern branch energy, and therefore, it entirely misses the phase. This actually put the 0z Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement for the weekend.....some pretty chilly air moving in, but primarily dry outside of a few flurries on the Euro.

The 6z run of the GFS is much the same.....slow with the southern branch energy and missing a phase opportunity.

Now, the players are on the field for a storm system over the eastern US this weekend, but it would take the pieces of upper level energy moving at a different pace than is being indicated by the latest modeling. It is unlikely, but not impossible. Let's see what the next couple of days hold as the models get a better handling of the timing of these disturbances.


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