Interesting times ahead...

>> Wednesday, January 19, 2011

I cover a lot of ground in today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Anything from a nice afternoon today, some Tennessee Valley snow later this week, more arctic air over the weekend, winter weather possibilities in the Carolinas early next week, and the pattern as we march toward February. Give it a look....

We began our Wednesday with lots of fog and clouds, but this should actually wind up being one of the nicer afternoons we have had thus far this winter. Highs will top out in the 50s, and we will see lots of afternoon sun.

This is a quick-hitting pattern, and this mild weather will not stick around. A low pressure area and its associated arctic cold front will move through the Carolinas Thursday night. East of the mountains, any precip (and that will be limited) will be in the form of rain. To the west, this will likely be a light snow event through the Tennessee Valley. The amount of precip is limited though, so don't look for huge snow totals.

Much colder air will again flow in here Friday, and we might see some Piedmont spots struggle to hit 40 Friday afternoon. Snow will be flying again Friday morning in the mountains.

It will be cold for the weekend again with many spots in the 30s for highs Saturday and low to mid 40s at best Sunday. Lows will drop into the lower 20s and upper teens.

System early next week...

We are dealing with lots of moving pieces here, but this sure has the overall look of one of our cold air damming winter weather events. Frankly, at this point, the European, Canadian, and UKMET models are all really in quite good agreement with one another. The GFS is a little slower and weaker overall. But just look at this panel from the UKMET....1039mb high near the NE, and a low in the northern Gulf. That always smells like trouble.
To me this has the looks and feel of a potential ice event across parts of the region....maybe a snow to ice deal in the NC favored damming regions.

Keep in mind we are firmly entrenched into the 'potential' category here.....this could vanish in future model runs as, like I mentioned, we are dealing with lots of moving pieces. But it has my attention.


Ryan R. 6:41 AM  

Matt, you're not boring us with your great analysis and insight. We sincerely appreciate and look forward to your discussion each morning, especially for us snow-lovers! Keep up the great work, and have a great day!

Matthew East 7:34 AM  

Thanks, Ryan! I appreciate it...

strong wx/nc 7:53 AM  

great video, as always Matt. Looking forward to your thoughts as we head closer to early next week.

Matthew East 7:58 AM  


Tom 8:08 AM  

Good stuff again, Matt -- especially touching on the confusing very long range. Thanks again!

Anonymous 8:42 AM  

Good stuff Matt. No boredom here. Always interested in learning more about winter weather. And I love how you say "Keerolinas" by the way, very wid-westish!:) Oh sure, you betcha!:)


Matthew East 9:17 AM  

Thanks, Tom and Brad. You know, I have heard somebody say that about how I say "Carolinas" before....had totally forgotten I had heard the before you said it. Funny for a kid from the South!

Anonymous 9:56 AM  

Matthew great video today, lots of great info and I hope by the first part of Feb you give your thoughts on at least the first half of the month. You always do a great job.


DoubleJ 1:07 PM  

Man, I could do without the ice scenario. For once, I hope this doesn't pan out.

Anonymous 3:35 PM  

I am soo pumped for this system! I really hope it pans out. I LOVE anything wintry!! Ice, snow, sleet, anything! I LOVE it! so bring it on! :))

wgbjr 3:43 PM  

Thanks Matthew!

Yeah the vicious 2002 ice storm had a similar set up. I hope it doesn't pan out. That storm was destructive for the region.

Anonymous 5:15 PM  

I don't think there's enough blocking to keep the HIGH from retreating like a punk when the warm air moves in. The 12Z models are all over the place and not trending toward a true cold air daming scenario. I think it's another cold rain. On to early February.


Anonymous 5:46 PM  

Brad your the definition of lame. Its days away from any event and your jumping on the cold rain train? Although I shouldn't be surprised. You have got to be one of the most negative people who comment these boards. Winter isn't over yet. Yeesh.

Chris Enloe 5:58 PM  

@Brad - I don't think the first high pressure moving out is going to be a big problem, because there is going to be another one behind it, that re-in-forces the first. There's a term for that, but I have forgotten it.

Anonymous 6:02 PM  

Thanks Anonymous! Lame isn't the worst I've ever been called! Sorry, I'm just reacting to the 12Z models. Not giving up on winter either, I've got a lot of hope for February. I try to comment on how I currently see things, and how I think. Sorry I bother you so much! I'll try to keep more positive. Thanks!


Anonymous 10:18 PM  


I didn't mean to sound like a such a jerk. But you did say a couple of blog post back that you thought that the cold wasn't going to last and that we would have to wait until next year for a major storm. Remember snow have been reported here in Apri. Winter is no where near over.

Anonymous 10:43 PM  

What happened with the 2002 ice storm? I've heard it mentioned several times. I wasn't here.. Just curious, if anyone feels like giving a quick recap.

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