Arcitc air back in place....potential big system next week....

>> Friday, January 21, 2011

Take a look at today's video...I step you through some of the modeling and give you some thoughts on what could be a major eastern US storm system next week....

Colder air has again arrived....and we will be generally quiet and chilly all weekend.

I will skip right ahead to the system next week. Most of the models have converged on a solution that consolidates the upper level energy into a powerful upper level low that develops roughly over the Ozarks and winds up overhead in the Carolinas. This results in a phasing, rapidly deepening low pressure that tracks from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to near or just inland of the Carolina coast and finally up to the New England states.

Now, I will caution here that, like some of our previous systems, we are talking about the precise interactions of upper level features in this fairly chaotic pattern, and some changes are quite likely.

But as it stands now, I would lean toward an idea something similar to what the GFS and Euro modeling is showing. What precip types any individual location would receive would depend entirely on the track and intensity of the surface low. For many Piedmont areas, this could be a snow to rain then back to snow scenario. But these details are really not even worth getting in to at this point.

So we will see what happens. If the energy aloft stays consolidated, then a major system is quite possible. If the system deepens too soon, many in our region could get a driving rain storm. If it deepens and tracks just right, it could be a biggie for somebody in the region.

But please hear this...the solutions that the Euro and GFS have shown this morning are rare events and very difficult to come by. So, I would not be surprised at all to see this intense solution not verify.

Like I said yesterday, I will likely not have any real confidence until a couple more days pass. Lots of players on the field here. As I said in the comment section, now is not the time for celebrations or pity parties. Lots will likely change in coming days.


Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 6:09 AM  

Hi Matt-

The video doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

Matthew East 6:13 AM  

Hey processing is taking forever this will be ready shortly.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 6:17 AM  

Cool, thanks. The SE Forum on American is going crazy with what could be a massive bomb according to the Euro and GGEM. I can't wait to see what you have to say.

Jonathan (Hickory, NC) 6:29 AM  

Haha!! I loved the intro! Good stuff! Here comes the bomb; now, let's just hope it stays close enough to the coast to get us with mainly snow and not as much of anything else.

Well, now we've got a definite storm to track. This should be fun!

Anonymous 6:49 AM  

How concerned are you for snow lovers about this system moving to far inland? I'm in Raleigh, so it looks like the further west the system goes the less chance of snow in RAH?

Anonymous 7:31 AM  

A little early for precip but ive heared if it stayed all snow for around asheville it could be well above a foot of snow coming close to totals of 93.. could you see this happening?

wgbjr 7:40 AM  

Loved the intro! Thanks for the update Matthew!

Anonymous 7:42 AM  

Hey Matt! I'm scared that this might turn out to be rain, but I hope it trends East. Are we just worried about rain and snow now? or is ice still a concern?
Thanks!! P.s. loved the beginning!

Matthew East 7:46 AM  

Hey guys....yes, if this turns into a big bomb of a low pressure that tracks just inland, than many areas once outside of the mountains and foothills would likely see a period of rain at some point during the storm....especially I-95 and points east.

Sure...there is reason for concern for areas, especially once east of CLT and GSO, that rain may rule the day. But it is way, way to early to know that right now.

If this is a true coastal low, I don't think much freezing rain would be involved.

Anonymous 7:54 AM  

Ahhh. Torrential rainstorm for Chapel Hill, it's looking like.

Reminds me of 12/18/09! Was still nice to have the flurries at the beginning.

Love that song BTW.


Anonymous 8:03 AM  

Ahhh joy major rainstorm coming this stupid thing gone track to far west of course when its time to get 2 foot of snow it tracks to far west? I hope it doesn't I'm going with a far enough east track that NW of I85 stays all snow...Chris

Matthew East 8:17 AM  

Guys...there is no need for celebrations or pity parties at this point. Lots of wrinkles to iron out.

Anonymous 8:26 AM  

I don't think you can start any weather forecast for snow lovers better than that one!! I sure hope it is a bomb!! Thanks for all the updates you do!


Matthew East 8:46 AM  

Sure thing, Caleb!

Brick 9:00 AM  

Rain, rain go away!
Bring some snow on Tuesday!

Greg 9:16 AM  

Would be nice to see a third snowfall this season!!! Wife bought my son and I a sled for Christmas and we have been getting some good use out of it :-) Just don't want her to have to stay the night at Hotel CMC again!

Anonymous 11:48 AM  

Everybody in the office keeps asking me why I keep singing "You dropped a bomb on me"? LOL BABY !

Matthew East 2:23 PM does get stuck in your head, doesn't it?

Definitely has been a nice winter....sleds getting a work-out!

I hear ya Brick...

Anonymous 3:15 PM  

How about the afternoon model runs all shifted east now meaning more snow than rain except the EMCWF and the GFS weakened it but still more snow JMA went way out east today unbelievable. Are you gone type a quick post on all this? Chris

Anonymous 3:15 PM  

How about the afternoon model runs all shifted east now meaning more snow than rain except the EMCWF and the GFS weakened it but still more snow JMA went way out east today unbelievable. Are you gone type a quick post on all this? Chris

Anonymous 3:29 PM  

Well Matt, there's 20 comments on here so certainly I feel like I need to chime in!:) I just don't know about this event, the inland track and the temperatures make me think this is going to be mostly rain for the CLT region, but we'll see what happens with the models this weekend. Hopefully this will trend south and east to get that cold in here better.

All I know is I want to hear more carefully chosen song puns in your videos, that was GREAT Matt!! Brings out your true snow weenieness! Plus remember when you used a Christmas song pun for the Christmas storm on twitter? That panned out ok. When it works, it works!!


Matthew East 3:48 PM  

Evidently the only analogs we ever need to watch for are when I start pulling out cheesy puns....haha. That must mean it is a done deal when that happens.

Seriously, I will probably type up something this evening....about to head out the door right now.

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