>> Friday, January 30, 2009

Remember that scene in the first Jurassic Park movie where Samuel L. Jackson switches off all of the power to the park in order to reset everything that was not working properly? When he flips the power back on, nothing comes back on as it was supposed to. His response, "Um....."

That's about how I feel right now.

As of now, the UKMET, Canadian, and the Japanese models are still showing the type of scenario unfolding that I had envisioned. However, the European and GFS have trended weaker and farther east with each of the past few runs. In fact, the GFS is giving the western Piedmont very little precip at all the past couple of runs.

There are a couple of reasons why this is happening, including the tilt of the upper level trough as well as any phasing of the system occurring much later than on runs from yesterday.

The GFS and Euro are also picking up on a second little storm system behind the 'main' one Monday night...this is also impacting their solutions.

So, in my opinion, we are in a holding pattern tonight. The disturbance responsible for the storm will be in the North American observation network with the 0z runs tonight, and if not certainly by the 12z runs tomorrow. That should add some clatiry to the situation.

So, I think the best course of action is to take a step back and re-evaluate things tomorrow.

I am not a flip-flopper, and I will not change my forecast on every little whim and change of a model. I am going to leave my ideas as-is tonight, but like I mentioned, some revisions might have to be made as we head through the weekend.


Anonymous 9:38 PM  

We will see Matt, Wednesday looks more interesting now and the Monday Night / Tuesday morning action looks like a no show. Im sure this will change in the next 12 hours :)

DoubleJ 12:34 AM  

Wow, nothing like predicting winter weather in the NC piedmont. Well, I'm not going to hold my breath, but I certainly won't give up on it yet. Thanks Matthew for your blog and videos, they are both interesting and very informative. Hope for Snow!!!

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