>> Saturday, November 29, 2008

I am in for the weekend shift in the Charlotte and Triad zones this weekend.

Classic wedge event us unfolding for the Piedmont today with temps hovering in the 40s for much of the day and occasional, mainly light rain. That will continue tonight.

I will say the airmass that has pushed into the Triad area is much drier than the model indicated. With that in mind, I think a few sleet pellets or snow flakes could be mixed in at times, but that should not be a big deal.

The main storm system will approach tomorrow, and that is when the have the highest potential for some heavier rates of rain. There will be a pretty sharp gradient northwest to southeast in the rain totals, but some folks might pick up over an inch.

Overall, the new week will be fairly cool with temperatures a bit below average most days.

I am keeping an eye on next weekend. That is a time period I have been highlighting for a while for storm potential, and there has been a decent system showing up on most modeling around Saturday. In fact, taken at face value, last night's run of the Canadian model and yesterday's European model was a big snowstorm for the western Carolinas.

Below are those runs of the Canadian and the Euro I mentioned for next weekend.


Anonymous 9:13 AM  

Hello Matt! I enjoy your blog and videos and your professing your love of Jesus Christ is inspiring!
I live in the Salisbury area and i want to ask if we are included in the chance of snow you mention for next week? Also, is there a chance of this rain turning to snow showers overnight with falling temps?


Matthew East 9:27 AM  

Thanks so much!

Sure, if the two models run I posted actually occurred, everyone from Raleigh down through Charlotte, the Triad, and the mountains would see some snow. However, at this point, I would place it as more of a curiosity than anything else. Still a long way away, and lots will change.

Don't think we have any wintry problems tonight....I suppose I can't rule out a sleet pellet or snow flake, but shouldn't be anything big, and almost everyone should see only rain.

Anonymous 12:50 PM  

hey matthew,

wow, those 2 models show a pretty impressive storm system. i commented on that a few days ago, when i noticed it on the gfs. however, at that time it appeared to be too warm for anything other than rain. however, now i've noticed the gfs shows a big blast of cold air coming around next weekend, but as of this morning, i didn't see a storm system showing up. i believe the gfs also did that with this weekends storm system too. it was there, then it was gone, then it showed up again a couple days later. at the very least, all models seem to show a big blast of cold air coming. would you put more confidence in the gfs, canadian or european models when it comes to forecasting winter weather? also, i was curious if you were going to be putting a weather video up at some point today to discuss next weeks storm? thanks.

Anonymous 8:43 PM  

it would appear the next weekend storm has begun to show up on the gfs again....any new thoughts on this?

Matthew East 8:08 AM  

I just can't be very specific with the potential storm system December 6-8. Far too much uncertainty. It might wind up too suppressed for anything significant.

As for the model of choice with winter weather, it varies by situation. But, statistically speaking, usually the European model is the best model in the medium range (days 3-10).

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